Race 3B

nicholas-j-barnett

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon 20.9% 16.3% 15.9% 11.7% 11.7% 8.4% 6.2% 4.4% 2.6% 0.9% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jeff Goodrich 9.2% 7.6% 10.1% 7.8% 10.8% 11.3% 10.0% 8.4% 10.1% 7.6% 4.3% 2.4% 0.4%
Brendan Heussler 7.6% 10.6% 10.7% 9.0% 9.5% 9.2% 12.0% 9.6% 10.0% 6.4% 3.5% 1.7% 0.2%
Tommy Holmberg 4.8% 5.9% 5.5% 7.2% 8.4% 7.9% 8.5% 10.7% 11.1% 13.0% 8.8% 6.1% 2.1%
Michael Saldi 10.2% 9.7% 9.5% 9.2% 9.8% 9.8% 9.1% 11.9% 9.4% 5.6% 3.8% 1.4% 0.6%
Conor Lodge 9.2% 8.0% 7.8% 10.2% 9.1% 10.1% 10.6% 8.8% 9.2% 8.8% 5.3% 2.6% 0.3%
Caleb Armstrong 12.7% 10.8% 11.0% 11.5% 12.0% 10.0% 8.5% 8.7% 6.1% 5.2% 2.4% 0.9% 0.2%
Kelsey Wheeler 11.3% 11.9% 10.1% 12.5% 10.3% 10.4% 10.9% 8.8% 6.0% 4.2% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2%
Sam Wyer 1.6% 2.2% 2.1% 3.9% 3.1% 3.3% 3.3% 5.5% 7.4% 10.4% 16.6% 23.6% 17.0%
Andrew McHenry 1.5% 2.7% 2.9% 2.6% 2.6% 3.4% 3.6% 6.1% 8.3% 11.9% 17.3% 19.9% 17.2%
Carolyn Naughton 8.6% 11.4% 11.5% 10.4% 8.7% 10.9% 11.1% 7.5% 7.2% 7.0% 4.1% 1.3% 0.3%
Jacob Hardy 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 1.4% 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 3.1% 4.3% 6.7% 10.0% 20.9% 47.1%
Genevieve Marquardt 1.8% 2.1% 2.2% 2.6% 2.6% 3.8% 4.7% 6.5% 8.3% 12.3% 20.2% 18.5% 14.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.