Race 4B

nicholas-j-barnett

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Kelsey Wheeler 11.2% 11.6% 12.3% 9.5% 11.5% 9.6% 10.4% 7.7% 6.9% 5.6% 2.9% 0.6% 0.2%
Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon 19.9% 18.1% 13.7% 14.8% 10.8% 7.8% 6.1% 3.9% 3.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Brendan Heussler 7.9% 9.5% 11.2% 8.8% 10.2% 9.9% 11.3% 8.8% 10.3% 6.3% 4.2% 1.4% 0.2%
Genevieve Marquardt 2.0% 2.1% 2.3% 3.3% 4.1% 4.0% 5.2% 5.2% 9.0% 12.3% 16.5% 20.6% 13.4%
Jeff Goodrich 8.9% 11.0% 7.5% 10.4% 9.1% 8.6% 10.5% 10.8% 8.4% 7.0% 5.3% 2.0% 0.5%
Caleb Armstrong 12.7% 11.0% 11.4% 10.7% 12.2% 10.1% 7.9% 8.2% 6.6% 4.6% 3.9% 0.6% 0.1%
Tommy Holmberg 6.4% 5.0% 8.5% 6.8% 5.4% 8.5% 8.2% 10.9% 11.7% 12.4% 9.4% 5.4% 1.4%
Carolyn Naughton 9.1% 10.7% 9.1% 9.7% 9.9% 10.6% 10.7% 10.2% 8.6% 6.1% 3.3% 1.7% 0.3%
Conor Lodge 7.7% 7.7% 10.2% 9.2% 8.9% 9.9% 10.5% 10.5% 8.7% 7.5% 6.3% 2.2% 0.7%
Michael Saldi 10.0% 9.4% 9.0% 10.1% 10.2% 10.8% 8.2% 9.5% 7.9% 8.1% 3.9% 2.1% 0.8%
Andrew McHenry 1.9% 1.3% 2.1% 3.0% 3.4% 5.0% 4.5% 5.9% 8.9% 11.9% 16.6% 20.5% 15.0%
Sam Wyer 1.4% 2.0% 1.8% 2.8% 3.0% 3.7% 4.5% 6.0% 6.1% 10.6% 15.9% 23.9% 18.3%
Jacob Hardy 0.9% 0.6% 0.9% 0.9% 1.3% 1.5% 2.0% 2.4% 3.9% 6.5% 11.2% 18.8% 49.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.