Race 5B

nicholas-j-barnett

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon 20.6% 15.8% 16.5% 12.2% 11.4% 8.3% 5.4% 5.0% 2.5% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Caleb Armstrong 11.0% 12.9% 11.2% 10.2% 12.2% 10.0% 9.5% 6.8% 7.8% 4.5% 2.8% 0.8% 0.3%
Jeff Goodrich 7.3% 8.8% 10.0% 9.3% 9.4% 10.0% 10.5% 10.4% 11.5% 6.3% 3.9% 2.1% 0.5%
Michael Saldi 9.9% 7.7% 10.9% 9.7% 9.7% 9.7% 10.7% 8.6% 9.9% 6.2% 5.1% 1.6% 0.3%
Brendan Heussler 10.4% 10.3% 8.8% 10.7% 9.5% 8.6% 10.1% 11.5% 7.7% 6.9% 3.5% 1.7% 0.3%
Tommy Holmberg 6.0% 4.9% 6.7% 7.8% 6.7% 8.2% 9.3% 11.2% 10.5% 10.7% 9.6% 6.5% 1.9%
Kelsey Wheeler 12.0% 12.5% 10.5% 11.4% 10.9% 10.8% 8.7% 8.1% 7.5% 3.5% 3.3% 0.8% 0.0%
Carolyn Naughton 9.3% 10.2% 9.5% 9.9% 9.3% 10.4% 10.9% 10.6% 8.6% 6.4% 3.5% 1.1% 0.3%
Sam Wyer 1.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5% 3.8% 2.8% 4.0% 4.7% 6.8% 12.3% 16.8% 20.8% 18.7%
Conor Lodge 8.0% 9.7% 8.5% 10.0% 9.4% 10.8% 8.9% 8.0% 9.6% 8.9% 4.8% 2.9% 0.5%
Jacob Hardy 0.8% 0.6% 0.9% 0.8% 1.9% 2.1% 2.0% 2.9% 4.1% 7.6% 11.8% 19.5% 45.0%
Andrew McHenry 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 3.2% 3.0% 4.2% 3.9% 6.1% 6.6% 11.5% 17.0% 21.6% 18.2%
Genevieve Marquardt 1.6% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% 2.8% 4.1% 6.1% 6.1% 6.9% 13.3% 17.5% 20.6% 14.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.