Race 4A

roger-williams-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

25.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Ellis Tonissi 9.2% 9.0% 9.3% 9.3% 10.4% 10.8% 11.2% 10.8% 8.4% 6.5% 4.0% 1.1%
Angus Page 4.4% 4.8% 7.4% 6.9% 6.9% 9.2% 8.7% 9.6% 12.7% 14.4% 10.6% 4.4%
Bradley Brown 10.4% 8.8% 8.5% 9.4% 10.5% 11.5% 10.2% 10.5% 9.0% 7.2% 3.2% 0.8%
Helen Lord 7.9% 10.0% 9.8% 12.3% 9.7% 11.0% 11.0% 7.9% 8.8% 6.8% 3.4% 1.4%
Billy Hines 6.7% 8.1% 7.7% 8.8% 10.1% 8.9% 9.8% 11.3% 10.2% 8.6% 7.9% 1.9%
John Meleney 19.7% 20.5% 14.1% 13.7% 9.7% 8.2% 6.5% 4.2% 1.9% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Ian Hollerbach 6.2% 5.3% 7.5% 7.8% 7.8% 9.0% 8.7% 10.7% 12.4% 11.2% 8.8% 4.6%
Alex Whipple 17.9% 16.4% 13.6% 11.4% 10.8% 9.0% 8.4% 6.0% 3.6% 1.6% 1.0% 0.3%
Michael Sturges 9.9% 9.7% 13.0% 11.3% 11.8% 8.2% 10.8% 9.9% 8.0% 5.4% 1.6% 0.4%
Nicholas Dragone 4.7% 4.0% 6.1% 5.7% 6.2% 8.0% 7.6% 11.5% 11.5% 14.1% 13.9% 6.7%
Priscilla Stoll 2.1% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7% 3.4% 4.3% 4.7% 5.1% 6.9% 12.9% 24.9% 30.9%
Tom McKenzie 0.9% 1.9% 1.4% 1.7% 2.7% 1.9% 2.4% 2.5% 6.6% 9.9% 20.6% 47.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.