Race 1B

roger-williams-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Henry Vogel 14.2% 17.0% 16.9% 12.6% 12.3% 9.8% 7.3% 4.5% 2.7% 1.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0%
Emmett Weeks 7.3% 8.8% 10.1% 10.7% 11.8% 11.5% 10.4% 9.3% 7.4% 5.7% 4.5% 1.9% 0.6%
Ben Weigel 38.9% 23.5% 16.2% 10.0% 5.0% 3.9% 1.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richard Meisenbach 3.9% 5.9% 5.3% 8.7% 9.5% 7.4% 8.9% 11.5% 10.9% 10.4% 9.3% 6.0% 2.3%
Melissa Bermudez 7.3% 10.2% 11.8% 11.1% 10.8% 9.4% 10.4% 8.7% 9.2% 5.3% 3.7% 1.8% 0.3%
Brian Gracey 5.5% 6.7% 6.9% 9.3% 10.4% 9.8% 10.2% 9.9% 9.0% 9.6% 6.7% 4.7% 1.3%
Jack Kerby-Miller 5.2% 4.8% 6.6% 7.5% 7.5% 9.2% 8.7% 10.6% 11.1% 10.2% 9.4% 7.0% 2.2%
Alexander Rudkin 6.3% 8.7% 10.1% 9.8% 9.4% 11.1% 11.3% 10.5% 8.9% 7.0% 4.2% 2.0% 0.7%
Ryan Daly 5.6% 5.2% 7.5% 8.5% 8.9% 9.2% 11.5% 10.5% 8.4% 10.6% 7.3% 5.0% 1.8%
Pierce Conlin 2.0% 3.1% 2.7% 2.9% 3.7% 6.0% 5.6% 6.6% 9.2% 11.3% 15.2% 16.6% 15.1%
Moussa Diolombi 1.1% 1.0% 1.2% 2.3% 2.5% 4.0% 4.8% 3.5% 6.6% 8.5% 12.8% 21.5% 30.2%
James McAndrew 1.8% 3.8% 3.8% 4.4% 6.2% 6.1% 6.6% 9.0% 10.4% 10.4% 15.3% 13.5% 8.7%
Christopher Wagner 0.9% 1.3% 0.9% 2.2% 2.0% 2.6% 2.9% 4.6% 6.1% 9.1% 10.9% 19.7% 36.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.