Race 3B

roger-williams-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Ben Weigel 36.4% 25.7% 16.6% 9.0% 5.7% 3.7% 1.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jack Kerby-Miller 4.1% 4.2% 5.8% 7.5% 7.8% 7.1% 10.8% 11.1% 9.9% 10.9% 10.8% 7.4% 2.6%
Alexander Rudkin 5.6% 6.5% 9.6% 10.9% 9.8% 10.1% 11.6% 10.2% 8.9% 9.3% 4.3% 2.7% 0.5%
Ryan Daly 3.9% 6.3% 6.5% 10.0% 9.3% 8.0% 10.8% 10.2% 8.4% 10.8% 9.1% 5.2% 1.5%
Irene Jacqz 12.0% 12.6% 12.7% 11.5% 12.3% 12.2% 7.5% 8.2% 5.3% 3.1% 2.0% 0.6% 0.0%
Henry Vogel 15.8% 16.6% 14.6% 13.8% 12.6% 8.8% 6.5% 5.2% 3.4% 1.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Christopher Wagner 1.5% 1.6% 2.1% 1.9% 2.0% 3.2% 3.7% 5.1% 5.6% 7.1% 11.4% 20.6% 34.2%
Brian Gracey 5.1% 6.9% 7.0% 7.4% 8.0% 11.3% 12.5% 11.1% 9.0% 9.1% 7.3% 4.4% 0.9%
Emmett Weeks 7.0% 7.9% 10.4% 10.2% 11.7% 11.0% 10.5% 8.8% 8.8% 6.0% 4.9% 1.7% 1.1%
Moussa Diolombi 1.0% 1.4% 2.0% 2.4% 2.4% 3.0% 2.9% 3.8% 5.7% 8.7% 12.1% 19.8% 34.8%
James McAndrew 2.3% 3.0% 4.0% 6.0% 5.1% 8.0% 8.1% 8.2% 11.8% 12.6% 12.2% 12.3% 6.4%
Richard Meisenbach 3.5% 5.7% 5.9% 7.0% 9.8% 7.7% 8.8% 10.0% 12.5% 10.8% 8.6% 7.3% 2.4%
Pierce Conlin 1.8% 1.6% 2.8% 2.4% 3.5% 5.9% 4.7% 7.1% 10.5% 10.3% 16.1% 17.8% 15.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.