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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University1.16+5.09vs Predicted
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2Fairfield University0.42+4.29vs Predicted
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3Tufts University0.80+2.93vs Predicted
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4Olin College of Engineering0.22+4.05vs Predicted
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5Brown University0.37+2.74vs Predicted
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6Middlebury College0.03+2.17vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont0.48+0.21vs Predicted
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8Tufts University0.38-0.75vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University0.01-0.19vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.15-0.06vs Predicted
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11University of New Hampshire-0.37-0.90vs Predicted
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12Brown University0.33-4.27vs Predicted
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13University of New Hampshire-0.00-1.70vs Predicted
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14Bates College-0.40-4.18vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island-0.50-4.36vs Predicted
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16University of New Hampshire-1.09-3.12vs Predicted
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17University of Massachusetts at Amherst-2.04-1.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.09Tufts University1.169.6%1st Place
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6.29Fairfield University0.429.7%1st Place
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5.93Tufts University0.8012.0%1st Place
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8.05Olin College of Engineering0.226.8%1st Place
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7.74Brown University0.377.3%1st Place
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8.17Middlebury College0.036.2%1st Place
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7.21University of Vermont0.488.8%1st Place
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7.25Tufts University0.388.9%1st Place
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8.81Northeastern University0.015.1%1st Place
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9.94Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.153.4%1st Place
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10.1University of New Hampshire-0.373.2%1st Place
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7.73Brown University0.336.9%1st Place
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11.3University of New Hampshire-0.003.0%1st Place
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9.82Bates College-0.403.8%1st Place
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10.64University of Rhode Island-0.503.1%1st Place
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12.88University of New Hampshire-1.091.5%1st Place
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15.05University of Massachusetts at Amherst-2.040.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Larzelere | 9.6% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Nolan Cooper | 9.7% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Blake Vogel | 12.0% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| James Jagielski | 6.8% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Daniel van Heeckeren | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Walter Chiles | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 0.9% |
| Audrey Commerford | 8.8% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Harry Kaya Prager | 8.9% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Isabella Cho | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 1.1% |
| John Divelbiss | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 3.4% |
| Ted Richardsson | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 3.6% |
| Keller Morrison | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| James Sullivan | 3.0% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 12.0% | 12.7% | 8.1% |
| Cameron Frary | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 3.0% |
| Alden Coldreck | 3.1% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 4.7% |
| Sonja Krajewski | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 21.0% | 16.6% |
| Iain Gillespie | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 7.6% | 13.5% | 56.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.