← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Tufts University0.80+4.63vs Predicted
-
2Fairfield University0.42+4.29vs Predicted
-
3Tufts University0.38+4.34vs Predicted
-
4Tufts University1.16+2.10vs Predicted
-
5Brown University0.33+2.57vs Predicted
-
6Brown University0.37+1.84vs Predicted
-
7Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.15+2.92vs Predicted
-
8University of Rhode Island-0.50+2.89vs Predicted
-
9University of Vermont0.48-1.66vs Predicted
-
10Olin College of Engineering0.22-2.04vs Predicted
-
11Bates College-0.40-1.19vs Predicted
-
12University of New Hampshire-0.00-0.70vs Predicted
-
13University of New Hampshire-1.09-0.32vs Predicted
-
14Northeastern University0.01-5.06vs Predicted
-
15University of New Hampshire-0.37-4.84vs Predicted
-
16University of Massachusetts at Amherst-2.04-0.96vs Predicted
-
17Middlebury College0.03-8.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.63Tufts University0.8012.2%1st Place
-
6.29Fairfield University0.429.3%1st Place
-
7.34Tufts University0.387.8%1st Place
-
6.1Tufts University1.1610.8%1st Place
-
7.57Brown University0.338.7%1st Place
-
7.84Brown University0.375.9%1st Place
-
9.92Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.153.6%1st Place
-
10.89University of Rhode Island-0.502.6%1st Place
-
7.34University of Vermont0.487.2%1st Place
-
7.96Olin College of Engineering0.226.2%1st Place
-
9.81Bates College-0.404.1%1st Place
-
11.3University of New Hampshire-0.002.9%1st Place
-
12.68University of New Hampshire-1.092.5%1st Place
-
8.94Northeastern University0.014.9%1st Place
-
10.16University of New Hampshire-0.374.0%1st Place
-
15.04University of Massachusetts at Amherst-2.040.5%1st Place
-
8.18Middlebury College0.036.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Vogel | 12.2% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nolan Cooper | 9.3% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Harry Kaya Prager | 7.8% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Adam Larzelere | 10.8% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Keller Morrison | 8.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Daniel van Heeckeren | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| John Divelbiss | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 3.3% |
| Alden Coldreck | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 5.3% |
| Audrey Commerford | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| James Jagielski | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 0.5% |
| Cameron Frary | 4.1% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 3.2% |
| James Sullivan | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 13.7% | 7.0% |
| Sonja Krajewski | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 12.2% | 21.3% | 15.8% |
| Isabella Cho | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 1.4% |
| Ted Richardsson | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 3.6% |
| Iain Gillespie | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 13.1% | 57.5% |
| Walter Chiles | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 0.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.