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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University1.16+5.27vs Predicted
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2Brown University0.37+5.51vs Predicted
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3Tufts University0.80+2.89vs Predicted
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4Tufts University0.38+3.40vs Predicted
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5Bates College-0.40+4.94vs Predicted
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6Fairfield University0.42+0.27vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont0.48+0.03vs Predicted
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8University of New Hampshire-0.37+2.24vs Predicted
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9Brown University0.33-1.55vs Predicted
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10Olin College of Engineering0.22-1.99vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.15-1.22vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island-0.50-1.32vs Predicted
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13Middlebury College0.03-4.77vs Predicted
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14University of New Hampshire-0.00-2.52vs Predicted
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15University of New Hampshire-1.09-2.26vs Predicted
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16Northeastern University0.01-7.10vs Predicted
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17University of Massachusetts at Amherst-2.04-1.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.27Tufts University1.1610.4%1st Place
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7.51Brown University0.377.1%1st Place
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5.89Tufts University0.8012.1%1st Place
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7.4Tufts University0.387.5%1st Place
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9.94Bates College-0.404.0%1st Place
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6.27Fairfield University0.4210.6%1st Place
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7.03University of Vermont0.487.9%1st Place
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10.24University of New Hampshire-0.374.1%1st Place
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7.45Brown University0.336.8%1st Place
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8.01Olin College of Engineering0.226.5%1st Place
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9.78Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.153.7%1st Place
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10.68University of Rhode Island-0.503.3%1st Place
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8.23Middlebury College0.036.0%1st Place
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11.48University of New Hampshire-0.002.5%1st Place
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12.74University of New Hampshire-1.091.8%1st Place
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8.9Northeastern University0.015.1%1st Place
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15.19University of Massachusetts at Amherst-2.040.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Larzelere | 10.4% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Daniel van Heeckeren | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Blake Vogel | 12.1% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Harry Kaya Prager | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Cameron Frary | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 2.9% |
| Nolan Cooper | 10.6% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Audrey Commerford | 7.9% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Ted Richardsson | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 4.2% |
| Keller Morrison | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| James Jagielski | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| John Divelbiss | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 2.3% |
| Alden Coldreck | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 4.7% |
| Walter Chiles | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 0.7% |
| James Sullivan | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 15.0% | 8.0% |
| Sonja Krajewski | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 21.0% | 16.4% |
| Isabella Cho | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 1.8% |
| Iain Gillespie | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 14.8% | 56.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.