← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
14.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
21
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+8.31vs Predicted
-
2Roger Williams University4.31+4.31vs Predicted
-
3Boston College3.55+6.79vs Predicted
-
4Brown University3.05+8.23vs Predicted
-
5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49+5.10vs Predicted
-
6Dartmouth College3.62+3.61vs Predicted
-
7Connecticut College3.44+3.16vs Predicted
-
8Stanford University3.80+0.36vs Predicted
-
9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.82+4.32vs Predicted
-
10Yale University4.10-2.67vs Predicted
-
11Georgetown University3.33-0.26vs Predicted
-
12University of Michigan3.02+0.46vs Predicted
-
13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+2.77vs Predicted
-
14Tufts University3.37-3.45vs Predicted
-
15Boston University3.35-4.51vs Predicted
-
16Harvard University3.05-3.82vs Predicted
-
17University of Vermont2.93-4.29vs Predicted
-
18Northeastern University2.84-4.40vs Predicted
-
19St. Mary's College of Maryland3.11-6.95vs Predicted
-
20Cornell University2.77-6.36vs Predicted
-
21Salve Regina University3.36-10.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
9.31Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
-
6.31Roger Williams University4.310.1%1st Place
-
9.79Boston College3.550.1%1st Place
-
12.23Brown University3.050.0%1st Place
-
10.1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.1%1st Place
-
9.61Dartmouth College3.620.1%1st Place
-
10.16Connecticut College3.440.0%1st Place
-
8.36Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
-
13.32Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.820.0%1st Place
-
7.33Yale University4.100.1%1st Place
-
10.74Georgetown University3.330.0%1st Place
-
12.46University of Michigan3.020.0%1st Place
-
15.77U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.320.0%1st Place
-
10.55Tufts University3.370.0%1st Place
-
10.49Boston University3.350.0%1st Place
-
12.18Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
-
12.71University of Vermont2.930.0%1st Place
-
13.6Northeastern University2.840.0%1st Place
-
12.05St. Mary's College of Maryland3.110.0%1st Place
-
13.64Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
-
10.3Salve Regina University3.360.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Padnos | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 1.2% |
| Sean Bouchard | 11.2% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Mullins | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
| Drew Shea | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.4% |
| Markus Edegran | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.7% |
| Bernie Roesler | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.4% |
| Peter Miller | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.6% |
| Hans Henken | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Chloe Lepert | 2.0% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.5% |
| Morgan Kiss | 10.5% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Daniel Eichler | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 2.1% |
| Ryan Seago | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% |
| Dylan Finneran | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 24.1% |
| William Hutchings | 4.5% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.2% |
| Matt Johnson | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.5% |
| Michael Drumm | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.1% |
| Kimberly Kaull | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% |
| Conor Lodge | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 9.9% |
| Wick Dudley | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% |
| Duncan Howes | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 11.6% |
| Kyle Carney | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.