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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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2Maine Maritime Academy3.06+3.75vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.64+1.13vs Predicted
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4Tufts University3.21+1.30vs Predicted
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5University of Miami3.25+0.26vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University2.41+1.92vs Predicted
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7Wesleyan University2.71-0.11vs Predicted
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9Worcester Polytechnic Institute1.71+1.02vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College3.52-5.45vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.60-0.61vs Predicted
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12Salve Regina University2.54-4.47vs Predicted
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13University of Connecticut1.72-2.99vs Predicted
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14Middlebury College1.53-3.18vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University2.53-7.33vs Predicted
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16Bates College0.74-3.42vs Predicted
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17University of Rhode Island1.29-5.83vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.75Maine Maritime Academy3.060.1%1st Place
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4.13Brown University3.640.2%1st Place
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5.3Tufts University3.210.1%1st Place
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5.26University of Miami3.250.1%1st Place
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7.92Northeastern University2.410.1%1st Place
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6.89Wesleyan University2.710.1%1st Place
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10.02Worcester Polytechnic Institute1.710.0%1st Place
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4.55Bowdoin College3.520.1%1st Place
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10.39Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.600.0%1st Place
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7.53Salve Regina University2.540.1%1st Place
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10.01University of Connecticut1.720.0%1st Place
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10.82Middlebury College1.530.0%1st Place
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7.67Roger Williams University2.530.1%1st Place
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12.58Bates College0.740.0%1st Place
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11.17University of Rhode Island1.290.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Burgess | 10.6% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| Lucas Adams | 17.0% | 18.6% | 13.2% | 12.9% | 11.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| David Liebenberg | 11.9% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Howard | 11.6% | 12.6% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Marchetto | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.0% |
| John McGlynn | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 11.8% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Mike Brendlinger | 3.5% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 8.9% |
| Michael Croteau | 15.0% | 14.6% | 15.5% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Barry | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 12.1% | 13.5% | 13.0% | 9.1% |
| Robert Lippincott | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 0.8% |
| Thomas Presti | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 12.0% | 12.5% | 8.3% |
| Sean Willerford | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 12.1% | 13.5% | 14.7% | 13.1% |
| Matthew Paige | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% |
| Christopher Calahan | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 11.2% | 17.2% | 37.9% |
| Zachary O'Brien | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 18.8% | 17.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.