Race 2A

great-herring-pond-open

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
William Howard 12.0% 11.5% 11.5% 11.4% 11.5% 8.6% 8.8% 6.7% 6.3% 4.9% 3.3% 1.3% 1.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Blake Burgess 10.0% 10.6% 11.4% 9.7% 10.0% 9.6% 8.0% 9.4% 6.6% 5.6% 4.4% 3.3% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0%
David Liebenberg 11.7% 10.8% 10.8% 12.6% 8.5% 10.5% 9.4% 8.7% 6.8% 4.2% 3.7% 1.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Lucas Adams 17.1% 16.2% 14.5% 11.3% 10.8% 9.2% 7.4% 5.0% 3.8% 2.5% 1.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Matthew Paige 6.5% 5.6% 6.4% 5.4% 7.1% 9.7% 7.9% 7.3% 11.1% 9.1% 8.2% 5.9% 5.4% 3.3% 1.1%
Zachary O'Brien 1.6% 2.1% 1.8% 2.0% 2.5% 3.3% 3.7% 3.2% 4.3% 6.6% 7.5% 12.5% 12.8% 19.1% 17.0%
Daniel Barry 2.9% 2.6% 3.4% 2.6% 3.7% 2.5% 4.6% 5.4% 7.0% 8.1% 10.3% 10.1% 13.5% 12.6% 10.7%
Michael Croteau 14.4% 13.8% 14.9% 12.3% 10.1% 9.6% 7.6% 7.3% 3.5% 3.4% 1.4% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Thomas Presti 1.7% 2.5% 2.8% 3.3% 4.1% 4.2% 6.3% 6.8% 5.9% 10.0% 10.9% 10.2% 11.9% 12.2% 7.2%
Mike Brendlinger 2.9% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 3.1% 5.3% 5.0% 6.3% 7.3% 8.7% 10.2% 11.6% 12.5% 10.6% 9.3%
Robert Lippincott 5.2% 7.2% 5.8% 7.8% 8.4% 7.9% 7.5% 9.2% 8.1% 8.0% 6.7% 7.7% 5.7% 4.0% 0.8%
Sean Willerford 2.1% 1.4% 1.9% 2.3% 2.5% 3.3% 4.3% 5.5% 7.4% 6.3% 9.0% 12.8% 13.1% 14.9% 13.2%
John McGlynn 6.1% 6.7% 6.3% 9.0% 9.1% 6.6% 8.3% 9.8% 9.1% 9.7% 7.6% 5.3% 4.2% 1.4% 0.8%
Christopher Calahan 0.8% 1.1% 0.8% 0.7% 1.4% 2.3% 2.5% 2.0% 3.6% 3.9% 5.5% 8.6% 11.3% 17.0% 38.5%
Vincent Marchetto 5.0% 5.5% 5.3% 7.2% 7.2% 7.4% 8.7% 7.4% 9.2% 9.0% 10.1% 7.2% 6.0% 3.7% 1.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.