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📊 Prediction Accuracy
20.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Miami3.25+4.31vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College3.52+2.53vs Predicted
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3University of Connecticut1.72+6.99vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.60+6.44vs Predicted
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5Wesleyan University2.71+2.04vs Predicted
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6Salve Regina University2.54+1.57vs Predicted
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7Maine Maritime Academy3.06-1.12vs Predicted
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8Brown University3.64-3.62vs Predicted
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11Tufts University3.67-6.80vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island1.29-0.59vs Predicted
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13Worcester Polytechnic Institute1.71-2.84vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University2.41-5.83vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University2.53-7.20vs Predicted
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16Middlebury College1.53-5.39vs Predicted
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17Bates College0.74-4.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.31University of Miami3.250.1%1st Place
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4.53Bowdoin College3.520.2%1st Place
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9.99University of Connecticut1.720.0%1st Place
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10.44Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.600.0%1st Place
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7.04Wesleyan University2.710.1%1st Place
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7.57Salve Regina University2.540.0%1st Place
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5.88Maine Maritime Academy3.060.1%1st Place
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4.38Brown University3.640.2%1st Place
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4.2Tufts University3.670.2%1st Place
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11.41University of Rhode Island1.290.0%1st Place
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10.16Worcester Polytechnic Institute1.710.0%1st Place
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8.17Northeastern University2.410.0%1st Place
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7.8Roger Williams University2.530.0%1st Place
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10.61Middlebury College1.530.0%1st Place
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12.53Bates College0.740.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Howard | 11.6% | 11.9% | 12.7% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Michael Croteau | 16.0% | 13.9% | 13.7% | 13.3% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Thomas Presti | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 8.4% |
| Daniel Barry | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 12.2% | 12.1% | 14.5% | 10.7% |
| John McGlynn | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Robert Lippincott | 4.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Blake Burgess | 9.7% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Adams | 16.2% | 15.5% | 13.5% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ben Weigel | 16.5% | 16.4% | 14.3% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zachary O'Brien | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 13.9% | 18.6% | 17.9% |
| Mike Brendlinger | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 12.6% | 12.7% | 11.3% | 9.5% |
| Vincent Marchetto | 4.5% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 3.8% | 1.2% |
| Matthew Paige | 4.8% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 2.2% | 1.4% |
| Sean Willerford | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 14.8% | 14.8% | 10.4% |
| Christopher Calahan | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 17.7% | 39.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.