Race 1B

great-herring-pond-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

28.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Willem Sandberg 19.6% 18.4% 14.8% 11.5% 9.4% 8.1% 5.7% 4.6% 3.6% 1.7% 1.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0%
Connor Brady 14.1% 13.6% 12.1% 11.9% 10.4% 9.8% 9.6% 6.5% 4.6% 2.8% 2.0% 1.6% 0.8% 0.2%
Michael Saldi 10.0% 11.8% 11.2% 9.8% 8.9% 9.7% 9.2% 9.4% 6.6% 5.9% 4.2% 1.9% 1.1% 0.3%
Christopher Hulse 2.0% 2.9% 3.4% 3.8% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0% 7.9% 6.3% 8.3% 10.2% 13.6% 13.8% 13.1%
William Simon 4.3% 5.4% 4.6% 7.6% 6.3% 6.6% 7.9% 9.3% 8.4% 9.5% 9.7% 8.6% 7.4% 4.4%
Johanna Kincaid 10.9% 9.4% 12.4% 10.6% 9.9% 11.5% 8.4% 6.6% 6.7% 5.7% 4.3% 1.9% 1.6% 0.1%
Sean McLaughlin 4.7% 4.2% 5.9% 5.9% 5.6% 6.0% 7.3% 8.8% 8.8% 9.0% 9.5% 9.1% 8.9% 6.3%
Tom Peabody 9.1% 10.3% 8.0% 8.2% 10.6% 8.8% 9.6% 7.6% 8.0% 7.3% 5.0% 4.4% 2.1% 1.0%
Matthew Connolly 2.0% 1.1% 1.9% 1.7% 1.4% 2.1% 2.7% 3.5% 3.8% 5.5% 7.0% 12.3% 19.2% 35.8%
Samuel Cushing 8.0% 8.1% 7.8% 10.3% 9.7% 10.1% 8.9% 8.6% 8.0% 7.9% 5.3% 4.0% 2.5% 0.8%
Christopher Jensen 5.6% 5.2% 5.5% 6.3% 8.6% 7.5% 8.4% 7.3% 10.0% 9.8% 8.2% 7.6% 6.4% 3.6%
Edward Moan 1.8% 1.9% 2.3% 3.4% 3.0% 3.1% 4.2% 5.1% 6.4% 7.4% 10.7% 13.3% 16.4% 21.0%
Michael Rottier 4.3% 4.3% 4.9% 4.7% 4.3% 5.6% 7.5% 8.4% 10.5% 9.3% 9.9% 9.5% 10.5% 6.3%
Brooke Baker 3.6% 3.4% 5.2% 4.3% 7.1% 6.2% 5.6% 6.4% 8.3% 9.9% 12.5% 11.6% 8.8% 7.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.