Race 3B

great-herring-pond-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Connor Brady 17.3% 14.9% 14.3% 12.6% 10.4% 9.5% 6.3% 6.6% 3.8% 2.2% 1.1% 0.8% 0.2%
Michael Saldi 13.5% 12.3% 12.2% 12.5% 11.8% 9.4% 7.3% 7.5% 5.3% 4.1% 2.6% 0.9% 0.6%
Edward Moan 2.4% 2.7% 2.0% 3.3% 4.5% 4.9% 4.6% 6.3% 7.9% 9.2% 14.1% 17.3% 20.8%
Sky Adams 11.9% 10.8% 12.8% 10.5% 9.1% 10.4% 9.6% 7.6% 6.9% 5.8% 2.7% 1.5% 0.4%
Tom Peabody 11.5% 11.2% 12.5% 10.6% 9.1% 10.0% 8.5% 7.9% 6.4% 5.8% 4.1% 1.9% 0.5%
Samuel Cushing 11.4% 10.5% 10.3% 11.0% 9.3% 11.9% 8.4% 7.5% 6.5% 5.8% 3.7% 2.8% 0.9%
Brooke Baker 5.4% 5.8% 5.6% 5.8% 4.8% 5.8% 8.9% 7.9% 10.1% 10.1% 11.3% 11.8% 6.7%
William Simon 6.4% 7.2% 5.9% 6.8% 9.5% 8.0% 9.8% 9.5% 9.0% 9.3% 8.5% 6.8% 3.3%
Christopher Hulse 3.6% 4.1% 4.0% 4.1% 4.7% 6.3% 6.0% 7.5% 9.1% 10.3% 11.4% 14.7% 14.2%
Matthew Connolly 1.8% 2.0% 2.5% 2.5% 2.7% 3.0% 4.2% 3.7% 7.2% 7.1% 9.1% 17.4% 36.8%
Sean McLaughlin 4.5% 5.8% 6.5% 6.5% 6.9% 6.2% 9.6% 10.5% 9.3% 9.9% 11.5% 7.2% 5.6%
Michael Rottier 5.1% 4.7% 3.7% 7.0% 8.5% 5.5% 7.9% 8.1% 9.8% 10.1% 12.7% 10.1% 6.8%
Christopher Jensen 5.2% 8.0% 7.7% 6.8% 8.7% 9.1% 8.9% 9.4% 8.7% 10.3% 7.2% 6.8% 3.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.