Race 4B

great-herring-pond-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Tom Peabody 12.1% 10.7% 11.4% 10.5% 10.3% 11.4% 9.5% 6.9% 6.0% 5.6% 3.5% 1.4% 0.7%
Sky Adams 10.9% 13.4% 10.5% 12.3% 11.7% 10.1% 8.6% 7.5% 5.6% 5.0% 2.1% 1.8% 0.5%
Michael Saldi 13.8% 12.8% 14.6% 10.6% 10.6% 10.0% 8.6% 6.9% 5.4% 3.9% 1.5% 0.9% 0.4%
Connor Brady 16.3% 16.7% 14.2% 13.3% 10.9% 8.4% 7.4% 6.0% 3.3% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3%
Edward Moan 3.5% 2.9% 2.6% 4.8% 3.6% 4.3% 5.9% 7.4% 7.6% 8.9% 13.4% 16.8% 18.3%
Samuel Cushing 11.5% 12.7% 11.5% 10.4% 11.1% 9.3% 8.5% 6.9% 6.5% 5.6% 3.7% 1.5% 0.8%
William Simon 7.8% 6.1% 8.5% 7.6% 8.2% 7.2% 10.1% 9.5% 9.0% 10.0% 7.9% 5.4% 2.7%
Christopher Hulse 3.4% 4.9% 3.8% 5.0% 4.0% 6.5% 7.4% 8.4% 10.2% 9.7% 12.9% 12.7% 11.1%
Genevieve Marquardt 3.5% 3.5% 3.8% 4.8% 4.7% 5.3% 5.9% 6.9% 8.4% 12.0% 11.2% 14.9% 15.1%
Sean McLaughlin 6.4% 5.5% 5.8% 6.1% 6.2% 9.5% 8.2% 10.0% 9.9% 8.6% 9.5% 7.8% 6.5%
Matthew Connolly 1.9% 1.3% 2.7% 2.5% 3.0% 3.9% 4.9% 4.9% 6.7% 9.0% 11.1% 17.3% 30.8%
Michael Rottier 4.8% 4.7% 5.6% 6.3% 8.5% 7.0% 7.6% 9.1% 11.0% 9.4% 10.9% 8.3% 6.8%
Brooke Baker 4.1% 4.8% 5.0% 5.8% 7.2% 7.1% 7.4% 9.6% 10.4% 10.2% 11.5% 10.9% 6.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.