Race 5B

great-herring-pond-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Michael Saldi 13.8% 14.6% 11.7% 11.3% 11.1% 9.9% 8.1% 7.0% 5.8% 3.5% 2.0% 1.2% 0.0%
Sean McLaughlin 5.0% 5.0% 6.2% 6.6% 6.2% 8.4% 8.5% 10.9% 9.5% 10.0% 9.8% 9.4% 4.5%
Connor Brady 17.2% 15.3% 13.8% 12.2% 13.0% 8.6% 6.7% 5.4% 4.9% 1.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
Genevieve Marquardt 2.9% 3.2% 3.7% 5.5% 5.0% 5.2% 6.6% 7.5% 9.3% 10.2% 12.5% 14.9% 13.5%
Sky Adams 12.0% 15.1% 11.2% 11.3% 9.7% 9.5% 9.4% 7.4% 5.9% 4.0% 2.8% 1.5% 0.2%
Tom Peabody 12.4% 10.2% 11.7% 12.1% 11.4% 9.4% 7.8% 8.2% 5.8% 5.6% 2.8% 2.1% 0.5%
William Simon 7.8% 6.5% 7.8% 7.1% 7.9% 9.3% 9.9% 8.7% 8.9% 8.9% 8.6% 6.5% 2.1%
Samuel Cushing 11.8% 10.8% 10.6% 11.9% 9.7% 11.6% 9.4% 7.7% 5.5% 4.8% 4.1% 1.8% 0.3%
Edward Moan 2.5% 3.4% 3.7% 3.1% 4.3% 3.4% 5.7% 6.3% 7.3% 12.0% 12.4% 16.0% 19.9%
Christopher Hulse 4.2% 3.8% 4.8% 4.4% 4.5% 6.9% 6.9% 8.3% 9.7% 10.1% 12.7% 12.0% 11.7%
Michael Rottier 4.3% 5.5% 8.2% 6.9% 7.5% 7.4% 9.3% 9.4% 10.9% 9.3% 8.1% 8.1% 5.1%
Brooke Baker 4.3% 5.2% 4.4% 6.2% 6.8% 6.8% 8.0% 8.4% 9.8% 10.7% 11.6% 10.1% 7.7%
Matthew Connolly 1.8% 1.4% 2.2% 1.4% 2.9% 3.6% 3.7% 4.8% 6.7% 9.1% 11.9% 16.1% 34.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.