Race 6B

great-herring-pond-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

30.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Connor Brady 17.9% 16.0% 13.0% 12.4% 11.9% 8.9% 6.5% 6.1% 2.8% 2.7% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
William Simon 6.0% 6.2% 8.0% 8.2% 7.3% 9.5% 9.4% 8.7% 10.7% 8.4% 8.6% 5.7% 3.3%
Tom Peabody 10.2% 11.9% 10.9% 11.1% 9.5% 9.3% 11.4% 9.0% 5.9% 5.5% 3.5% 1.2% 0.6%
Michael Saldi 13.7% 13.3% 12.8% 12.1% 11.0% 9.0% 8.3% 7.7% 5.5% 3.5% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Brooke Baker 6.0% 4.3% 6.5% 6.6% 7.3% 5.7% 7.7% 9.3% 9.9% 10.1% 11.5% 10.1% 5.0%
Sky Adams 12.1% 13.4% 12.1% 10.7% 10.9% 11.1% 7.7% 6.7% 6.0% 4.6% 3.2% 1.2% 0.3%
Genevieve Marquardt 4.1% 3.4% 4.8% 4.8% 5.6% 4.8% 5.4% 6.1% 10.6% 10.5% 11.2% 17.1% 11.6%
Samuel Cushing 11.4% 12.0% 10.8% 10.1% 9.7% 11.1% 10.4% 7.7% 6.4% 5.7% 2.7% 1.6% 0.4%
Edward Moan 2.8% 3.1% 2.8% 4.4% 3.5% 4.2% 5.4% 6.5% 7.1% 10.3% 14.1% 14.6% 21.2%
Michael Rottier 6.3% 4.0% 6.7% 5.6% 7.9% 8.7% 8.1% 8.7% 9.7% 9.9% 10.5% 8.0% 5.9%
Sean McLaughlin 4.8% 6.6% 6.0% 7.8% 6.8% 7.5% 9.1% 10.6% 9.5% 10.4% 9.1% 7.5% 4.3%
Matthew Connolly 1.3% 1.9% 2.1% 2.6% 2.6% 3.3% 3.3% 5.5% 5.9% 7.7% 10.4% 17.5% 35.9%
Christopher Hulse 3.4% 3.9% 3.5% 3.6% 6.0% 6.9% 7.3% 7.4% 10.0% 10.7% 11.6% 14.5% 11.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.