Race 8B

great-herring-pond-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Michael Saldi 13.7% 13.5% 12.6% 12.2% 11.7% 9.6% 7.6% 8.1% 4.5% 3.1% 2.3% 1.1% 0.0%
Tom Peabody 11.1% 10.6% 12.0% 11.1% 11.4% 10.2% 7.7% 8.2% 6.8% 5.1% 3.9% 1.4% 0.5%
Sky Adams 11.7% 12.1% 12.0% 11.4% 10.7% 9.3% 10.7% 8.1% 5.6% 3.7% 3.2% 1.3% 0.2%
Genevieve Marquardt 2.9% 3.1% 3.3% 5.1% 4.3% 6.5% 6.8% 7.1% 8.1% 11.7% 12.5% 14.4% 14.2%
Sean McLaughlin 6.0% 5.6% 5.4% 7.7% 6.9% 8.3% 7.3% 8.1% 11.7% 10.6% 8.9% 9.0% 4.5%
Michael Rottier 5.8% 5.9% 5.4% 7.0% 6.5% 7.8% 8.5% 9.2% 10.9% 9.2% 9.7% 9.4% 4.7%
Connor Brady 18.2% 16.3% 14.6% 11.6% 10.6% 7.8% 7.7% 6.0% 3.4% 2.1% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1%
Brooke Baker 5.0% 5.4% 5.2% 5.4% 7.5% 7.8% 7.1% 9.3% 10.6% 11.6% 10.1% 9.4% 5.6%
Edward Moan 2.8% 3.2% 3.2% 4.1% 3.7% 4.0% 5.4% 5.6% 6.9% 11.4% 13.2% 17.3% 19.2%
Christopher Hulse 4.6% 3.8% 4.7% 3.6% 5.7% 6.1% 8.4% 7.0% 9.2% 10.0% 13.1% 11.4% 12.4%
William Simon 6.6% 7.9% 7.9% 8.1% 9.2% 8.4% 10.2% 9.3% 9.4% 8.1% 6.2% 5.7% 3.0%
Samuel Cushing 10.3% 10.9% 11.4% 10.0% 9.7% 11.1% 8.7% 8.9% 6.9% 4.7% 4.5% 2.4% 0.5%
Matthew Connolly 1.3% 1.7% 2.3% 2.7% 2.1% 3.1% 3.9% 5.1% 6.0% 8.7% 11.0% 17.0% 35.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.