Race 1A

lark-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
10
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Ames Lyman 11.0% 12.1% 11.9% 11.4% 11.6% 11.9% 11.0% 9.0% 6.9% 3.2%
Timothy Lorenzen 10.7% 10.5% 12.4% 11.1% 13.0% 11.9% 9.9% 9.4% 9.0% 2.1%
Ian Paice 25.1% 19.7% 16.5% 14.1% 10.8% 6.6% 4.5% 1.7% 1.0% 0.0%
Justin Marks 12.7% 15.7% 13.1% 12.3% 14.2% 11.2% 7.8% 6.9% 4.4% 1.7%
Benjamin Mende 8.5% 9.3% 7.2% 9.2% 11.0% 11.6% 13.0% 12.1% 10.9% 7.2%
Johannes Raatz 15.4% 11.8% 14.1% 14.0% 12.2% 9.3% 9.9% 7.3% 4.4% 1.6%
Jacob Hardy 3.2% 4.3% 6.4% 6.9% 6.4% 9.9% 12.1% 14.1% 17.1% 19.6%
Michael O'Brien 5.5% 7.9% 8.2% 9.4% 7.8% 11.4% 11.8% 14.9% 12.7% 10.4%
William Kresic 5.4% 5.5% 6.6% 6.7% 8.5% 10.8% 10.1% 13.9% 17.7% 14.8%
Francisco Salas 2.5% 3.2% 3.6% 4.9% 4.5% 5.4% 9.9% 10.7% 15.9% 39.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.