Race 4A

lark-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
10
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Ian Paice 26.8% 22.4% 14.3% 11.5% 10.2% 6.7% 4.7% 2.1% 0.6% 0.7%
Johannes Raatz 12.2% 14.3% 13.4% 14.8% 10.2% 10.6% 11.1% 7.7% 4.2% 1.5%
Ames Lyman 11.5% 9.2% 11.3% 11.4% 12.4% 13.7% 12.3% 7.2% 7.7% 3.3%
Justin Marks 12.5% 14.1% 14.0% 13.4% 13.3% 11.7% 7.9% 7.4% 4.5% 1.2%
Jacob Hardy 5.0% 6.1% 5.9% 6.7% 6.4% 7.9% 10.2% 15.0% 17.3% 19.5%
Timothy Lorenzen 11.7% 10.5% 12.1% 12.3% 12.5% 11.1% 9.8% 10.0% 6.7% 3.3%
Michael O'Brien 5.6% 6.4% 8.6% 7.9% 10.0% 11.4% 13.1% 13.1% 13.9% 10.0%
Benjamin Mende 7.7% 8.5% 9.2% 10.3% 11.1% 10.5% 12.7% 12.6% 10.3% 7.1%
Francisco Salas 2.6% 3.1% 3.5% 4.3% 4.6% 7.0% 7.4% 10.7% 18.1% 38.7%
William Kresic 4.4% 5.4% 7.7% 7.4% 9.3% 9.4% 10.8% 14.2% 16.7% 14.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.