Race 5A

lark-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
10
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Ames Lyman 11.4% 12.1% 11.8% 11.3% 12.1% 11.3% 10.9% 8.5% 7.2% 3.4%
William Kresic 5.9% 4.8% 5.3% 8.3% 8.2% 9.4% 12.7% 14.0% 16.8% 14.6%
Justin Marks 13.0% 13.8% 11.9% 12.6% 12.5% 13.8% 8.0% 8.2% 4.5% 1.7%
Ian Paice 25.3% 19.8% 17.9% 14.0% 10.6% 5.3% 4.0% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2%
Benjamin Mende 8.3% 7.9% 9.2% 9.5% 10.1% 11.6% 13.3% 11.9% 11.4% 6.8%
Michael O'Brien 7.4% 7.0% 7.4% 8.4% 8.5% 11.2% 12.5% 13.4% 14.3% 9.9%
Johannes Raatz 12.1% 13.4% 15.7% 13.3% 13.4% 10.9% 9.5% 5.9% 3.8% 2.0%
Timothy Lorenzen 10.0% 13.1% 11.9% 11.5% 12.4% 11.2% 10.0% 9.8% 6.6% 3.5%
Jacob Hardy 4.3% 5.0% 5.8% 6.1% 7.7% 8.1% 11.7% 14.2% 18.7% 18.4%
Francisco Salas 2.3% 3.1% 3.1% 5.0% 4.5% 7.2% 7.4% 12.0% 15.9% 39.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.