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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.64+8.25vs Predicted
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2Tufts University3.70+7.07vs Predicted
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3Washington College3.65+6.28vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92+3.85vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania3.16+5.83vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College4.15+1.04vs Predicted
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7Stanford University3.50+2.62vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.63+1.01vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University4.01-1.48vs Predicted
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10Yale University4.19-2.90vs Predicted
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11University of Miami3.99-3.19vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87-3.55vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida3.49-3.46vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy3.66-5.27vs Predicted
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15Texas A&M University at Galveston2.36-1.18vs Predicted
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16Georgetown University4.51-10.25vs Predicted
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17Queen's University2.11-2.33vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan1.60-2.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.25College of Charleston3.640.0%1st Place
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9.07Tufts University3.700.0%1st Place
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9.28Washington College3.650.0%1st Place
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7.85St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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10.83University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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7.04SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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9.62Stanford University3.500.1%1st Place
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9.01Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.630.1%1st Place
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7.52Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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7.1Yale University4.190.1%1st Place
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7.81University of Miami3.990.1%1st Place
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8.45Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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9.54University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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8.73U. S. Naval Academy3.660.1%1st Place
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13.82Texas A&M University at Galveston2.360.0%1st Place
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5.75Georgetown University4.510.1%1st Place
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14.67Queen's University2.110.0%1st Place
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15.66University of Michigan1.600.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Mace | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 0.9% |
| Massimo Soriano | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Michael Whitford | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Jack Swikart | 3.6% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 3.5% |
| Shawn Murray | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Nick Dugdale | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 3.1% | 2.0% |
| Eamon Glackin | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 0.6% |
| Dillon Paiva | 6.5% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Morris | 9.3% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Voss | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| Will Stocke | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| Jason Carminati | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Collin Weston | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 14.7% | 19.1% | 17.0% |
| Sydney Bolger | 11.6% | 12.3% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Lance Fraser | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 25.2% | 25.7% |
| David Oliver | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 5.7% | 10.2% | 19.5% | 44.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.