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📊 Prediction Accuracy
71.4%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
7
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University3.27+1.00vs Predicted
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2Rochester Institute of Technology0.56+3.53vs Predicted
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3Colgate University1.90+0.74vs Predicted
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4Columbia University2.87-1.50vs Predicted
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5Queen's University2.04-1.44vs Predicted
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6U. S. Military Academy0.86-0.85vs Predicted
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8Hamilton College0.45-2.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.0Cornell University3.270.4%1st Place
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5.53Rochester Institute of Technology0.560.0%1st Place
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3.74Colgate University1.900.1%1st Place
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2.5Columbia University2.870.3%1st Place
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3.56Queen's University2.040.1%1st Place
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5.15U. S. Military Academy0.860.0%1st Place
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5.53Hamilton College0.450.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Alley | 44.8% | 26.9% | 16.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Nathan Fulcher | 2.2% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 9.4% | 16.7% | 27.8% | 33.9% |
| Michael Dinneen | 9.1% | 14.9% | 19.2% | 23.7% | 20.2% | 9.1% | 3.8% |
| Brendan Hannon | 27.3% | 28.0% | 22.2% | 14.9% | 5.8% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Peter Soosalu | 10.1% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 20.2% | 18.1% | 8.9% | 2.6% |
| Michael Weigand | 3.4% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 14.3% | 22.0% | 26.1% | 22.5% |
| James McManus | 3.1% | 3.5% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 14.5% | 25.8% | 36.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.