← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1College of Charleston3.64+8.30vs Predicted
-
2U. S. Naval Academy3.66+7.27vs Predicted
-
3Tufts University3.70+6.00vs Predicted
-
4Georgetown University4.51+1.67vs Predicted
-
5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92+2.90vs Predicted
-
6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+2.13vs Predicted
-
7SUNY Maritime College4.15-0.02vs Predicted
-
8University of Pennsylvania3.16+2.90vs Predicted
-
9University of South Florida3.49+0.59vs Predicted
-
10University of Miami3.99-2.06vs Predicted
-
11Old Dominion University4.01-3.29vs Predicted
-
12Stanford University3.50-2.03vs Predicted
-
13Yale University4.19-6.21vs Predicted
-
14Texas A&M University at Galveston2.36-0.47vs Predicted
-
15Washington College3.65-6.00vs Predicted
-
16Queen's University2.11-1.39vs Predicted
-
17University of Michigan1.60-1.15vs Predicted
-
18Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.63-9.11vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
9.3College of Charleston3.640.0%1st Place
-
9.27U. S. Naval Academy3.660.0%1st Place
-
9.0Tufts University3.700.0%1st Place
-
5.67Georgetown University4.510.1%1st Place
-
7.9St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
-
8.13Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
-
6.98SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
-
10.9University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
-
9.59University of South Florida3.490.0%1st Place
-
7.94University of Miami3.990.1%1st Place
-
7.71Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
-
9.97Stanford University3.500.0%1st Place
-
6.79Yale University4.190.1%1st Place
-
13.53Texas A&M University at Galveston2.360.0%1st Place
-
9.0Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
-
14.61Queen's University2.110.0%1st Place
-
15.85University of Michigan1.600.0%1st Place
-
8.89Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.630.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Mace | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 0.8% |
| Jason Carminati | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Massimo Soriano | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Sydney Bolger | 12.9% | 12.5% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 6.2% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| Shawn Murray | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Jack Swikart | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 3.2% |
| Will Stocke | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| Nicholas Voss | 8.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Dillon Paiva | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| Nick Dugdale | 4.4% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 4.4% | 2.1% |
| Joseph Morris | 9.5% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Collin Weston | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 14.4% | 20.3% | 14.7% |
| Michael Whitford | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| Lance Fraser | 1.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 13.3% | 20.9% | 26.2% |
| David Oliver | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 8.3% | 21.0% | 47.4% |
| Eamon Glackin | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.