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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+7.32vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College4.15+5.24vs Predicted
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3University of South Florida3.49+6.95vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston3.64+4.96vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University4.01+2.50vs Predicted
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6Yale University4.19+0.87vs Predicted
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7University of Miami3.99+0.65vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92-0.15vs Predicted
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9Tufts University3.70-0.23vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.63-0.62vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania3.16+0.12vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University4.51-6.02vs Predicted
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13Stanford University3.50-3.49vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy3.66-5.32vs Predicted
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15Queen's University2.11-0.47vs Predicted
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16Washington College3.65-6.91vs Predicted
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17Texas A&M University at Galveston2.36-3.07vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan1.60-2.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.32Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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7.24SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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9.95University of South Florida3.490.0%1st Place
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8.96College of Charleston3.640.1%1st Place
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7.5Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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6.87Yale University4.190.1%1st Place
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7.65University of Miami3.990.1%1st Place
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7.85St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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8.77Tufts University3.700.0%1st Place
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9.38Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.630.1%1st Place
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11.12University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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5.98Georgetown University4.510.1%1st Place
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9.51Stanford University3.500.1%1st Place
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8.68U. S. Naval Academy3.660.1%1st Place
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14.53Queen's University2.110.0%1st Place
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9.09Washington College3.650.0%1st Place
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13.93Texas A&M University at Galveston2.360.0%1st Place
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15.66University of Michigan1.600.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Norfleet | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| Shawn Murray | 7.6% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Will Stocke | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 1.6% |
| Mac Mace | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 1.7% |
| Dillon Paiva | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Joseph Morris | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Voss | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 6.7% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Massimo Soriano | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Eamon Glackin | 5.8% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 0.8% |
| Jack Swikart | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 4.7% |
| Sydney Bolger | 12.4% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nick Dugdale | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 1.2% |
| Jason Carminati | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Lance Fraser | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 11.6% | 24.6% | 23.2% |
| Michael Whitford | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 1.4% |
| Collin Weston | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 16.4% | 19.1% | 18.6% |
| David Oliver | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 9.7% | 20.6% | 44.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.