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📊 Prediction Accuracy
54.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Arizona State University0.74+3.65vs Predicted
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2Arizona State University-1.55+6.37vs Predicted
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3University of California at Irvine0.43+1.00vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz0.52-0.15vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles1.30-2.57vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles-2.10+2.06vs Predicted
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7Arizona State University-0.52-0.89vs Predicted
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8University of California at Irvine-0.80-1.22vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles-1.09-1.65vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego-1.58-1.60vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-0.58-5.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.65Arizona State University0.7411.5%1st Place
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8.37Arizona State University-1.552.1%1st Place
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4.0University of California at Irvine0.4313.1%1st Place
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3.85University of California at Santa Cruz0.5216.4%1st Place
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2.43University of California at Los Angeles1.3035.6%1st Place
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8.06University of California at Los Angeles-2.101.8%1st Place
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6.11Arizona State University-0.525.1%1st Place
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6.78University of California at Irvine-0.804.4%1st Place
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7.35University of California at Los Angeles-1.093.0%1st Place
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8.4University of California at San Diego-1.581.7%1st Place
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6.0University of California at San Diego-0.585.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan Boylan | 11.5% | 10.8% | 13.5% | 14.5% | 14.0% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Mason Norwood | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 14.1% | 18.3% | 26.2% |
| Adam Leddy | 13.1% | 16.9% | 15.3% | 15.8% | 14.3% | 10.8% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| David Garcia | 16.4% | 15.8% | 16.5% | 14.3% | 13.2% | 10.8% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Marianna Shand | 35.6% | 26.2% | 16.3% | 11.2% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Orion Spatafora | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 15.0% | 18.4% | 20.2% |
| Andrew Down | 5.1% | 6.3% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 7.6% | 3.6% |
| Emma Feasey | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 15.2% | 12.7% | 11.9% | 6.8% |
| Liam Williams | 3.0% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 15.9% | 15.8% | 11.6% |
| Bella Valente | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 11.3% | 13.2% | 18.1% | 27.2% |
| Sean Lipps | 5.3% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 14.3% | 13.9% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 6.3% | 3.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.