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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.78+5.24vs Predicted
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2Texas A&M University at Galveston2.08+10.21vs Predicted
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3Yale University3.89+3.06vs Predicted
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4Washington College2.84+5.80vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University4.74-1.47vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+3.20vs Predicted
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7Tufts University3.41+0.71vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University3.03+0.90vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.42-1.15vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.90-0.49vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College3.28-2.68vs Predicted
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12University of Miami3.69-5.27vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida3.49-5.50vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania2.68-3.49vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.22-6.58vs Predicted
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16Queen's University1.06-1.11vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan0.62-1.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.24College of Charleston3.780.1%1st Place
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12.21Texas A&M University at Galveston2.080.0%1st Place
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6.06Yale University3.890.1%1st Place
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9.8Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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3.53Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
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9.2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.0%1st Place
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7.71Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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8.9Old Dominion University3.030.0%1st Place
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7.85Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.420.1%1st Place
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9.51U. S. Naval Academy2.900.0%1st Place
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8.32SUNY Maritime College3.280.1%1st Place
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6.73University of Miami3.690.1%1st Place
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7.5University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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10.51University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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8.42Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.220.1%1st Place
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14.89Queen's University1.060.0%1st Place
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15.63University of Michigan0.620.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Bowers | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Trey Hartman | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 8.3% | 11.7% | 19.4% | 16.2% | 5.9% |
| Cam Cullman | 9.5% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Bailey | 3.3% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 4.6% | 1.1% |
| Chris Barnard | 24.9% | 19.2% | 16.1% | 11.7% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Wallace | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 0.4% |
| Dan Nickerson | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Collin Leon | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| David Alfonso | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Philip Youngberg | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 3.7% | 1.2% |
| Randall Hartranft | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| David Hernandez | 8.2% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stocke | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 8.8% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 7.3% | 1.6% |
| Timothy Zacher | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| William Schwenger | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 6.4% | 10.3% | 32.6% | 32.7% |
| Nick Hecht | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 7.2% | 21.9% | 55.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.