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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College3.28+7.37vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.89+4.29vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.68+7.72vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.42+4.17vs Predicted
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5University of Miami3.69+1.97vs Predicted
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6University of South Florida3.49+2.03vs Predicted
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7Tufts University3.41+1.16vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.22+0.69vs Predicted
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9Stanford University3.90-2.44vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05-0.62vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University3.03-1.30vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy2.90-1.98vs Predicted
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13Washington College2.84-2.63vs Predicted
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14College of Charleston3.78-7.13vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan0.62+0.66vs Predicted
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16Queen's University1.06-0.89vs Predicted
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17Georgetown University4.74-13.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.37SUNY Maritime College3.280.1%1st Place
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6.29Yale University3.890.1%1st Place
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10.72University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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8.17Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.420.1%1st Place
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6.97University of Miami3.690.1%1st Place
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8.03University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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8.16Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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8.69Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.220.1%1st Place
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6.56Stanford University3.900.1%1st Place
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9.38St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.0%1st Place
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9.7Old Dominion University3.030.0%1st Place
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10.02U. S. Naval Academy2.900.0%1st Place
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10.37Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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6.87College of Charleston3.780.1%1st Place
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15.66University of Michigan0.620.0%1st Place
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15.11Queen's University1.060.0%1st Place
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3.93Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Hartranft | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.2% |
| Cam Cullman | 10.1% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Michael Russom | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 11.3% | 14.4% | 8.5% | 2.3% |
| David Alfonso | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| David Hernandez | 7.0% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Christopher Stocke | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Dan Nickerson | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Timothy Zacher | 5.5% | 3.9% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Mateo Vargas | 7.3% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| John Wallace | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 1.0% |
| Collin Leon | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 5.4% | 0.9% |
| Philip Youngberg | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 6.0% | 1.1% |
| Ryan Bailey | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 12.7% | 6.4% | 1.8% |
| Erik Bowers | 7.6% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Nick Hecht | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 6.3% | 22.9% | 56.3% |
| William Schwenger | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 35.2% | 35.0% |
| Chris Barnard | 21.9% | 17.1% | 16.2% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.