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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+7.88vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University4.74+1.69vs Predicted
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3University of Miami3.69+3.85vs Predicted
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4Washington College2.84+5.97vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.90+4.52vs Predicted
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6University of South Florida3.49+1.73vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University3.03+2.19vs Predicted
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8Stanford University3.90-1.93vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.68+1.65vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.22-1.56vs Predicted
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11Yale University3.89-4.70vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.42-4.17vs Predicted
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13Texas A&M University at Galveston2.08-0.52vs Predicted
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14Queen's University1.06+0.89vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston3.78-8.48vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan0.62-0.38vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College3.28-8.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.88St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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3.69Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
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6.85University of Miami3.690.1%1st Place
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9.97Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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9.52U. S. Naval Academy2.900.0%1st Place
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7.73University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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9.19Old Dominion University3.030.0%1st Place
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6.07Stanford University3.900.1%1st Place
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10.65University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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8.44Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.220.0%1st Place
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6.3Yale University3.890.1%1st Place
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7.83Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.420.1%1st Place
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12.48Texas A&M University at Galveston2.080.0%1st Place
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14.89Queen's University1.060.0%1st Place
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6.52College of Charleston3.780.1%1st Place
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15.62University of Michigan0.620.0%1st Place
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8.38SUNY Maritime College3.280.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Wallace | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Chris Barnard | 22.0% | 18.6% | 15.4% | 13.0% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Hernandez | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Bailey | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 5.4% | 1.4% |
| Philip Youngberg | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 1.3% |
| Christopher Stocke | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Collin Leon | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| Mateo Vargas | 11.1% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 13.3% | 6.4% | 1.9% |
| Timothy Zacher | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Cam Cullman | 10.4% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| David Alfonso | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Trey Hartman | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 21.0% | 16.5% | 6.4% |
| William Schwenger | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 10.8% | 29.5% | 34.9% |
| Erik Bowers | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Nick Hecht | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 8.0% | 24.1% | 52.2% |
| Randall Hartranft | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.