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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.22+7.34vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.68+8.36vs Predicted
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3University of Miami3.69+3.86vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston3.78+2.60vs Predicted
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5Stanford University3.90+0.95vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University4.74-2.21vs Predicted
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7Yale University3.89-0.88vs Predicted
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8Texas A&M University at Galveston2.08+4.15vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.42-1.02vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05-0.96vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College3.28-2.56vs Predicted
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12Tufts University3.41-4.17vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy2.90-3.19vs Predicted
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14Washington College2.84-3.96vs Predicted
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15Queen's University1.06-0.23vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan0.62-0.34vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University3.03-7.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.34Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.220.1%1st Place
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10.36University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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6.86University of Miami3.690.1%1st Place
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6.6College of Charleston3.780.1%1st Place
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5.95Stanford University3.900.1%1st Place
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3.79Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
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6.12Yale University3.890.1%1st Place
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12.15Texas A&M University at Galveston2.080.0%1st Place
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7.98Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.420.0%1st Place
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9.04St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.0%1st Place
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8.44SUNY Maritime College3.280.1%1st Place
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7.83Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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9.81U. S. Naval Academy2.900.0%1st Place
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10.04Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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14.77Queen's University1.060.0%1st Place
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15.66University of Michigan0.620.0%1st Place
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9.27Old Dominion University3.030.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timothy Zacher | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 3.3% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 6.6% | 1.1% |
| David Hernandez | 8.5% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Erik Bowers | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Mateo Vargas | 10.6% | 12.4% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Chris Barnard | 20.6% | 17.4% | 15.6% | 14.1% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cam Cullman | 10.6% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Trey Hartman | 2.4% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 12.2% | 17.0% | 17.4% | 6.6% |
| David Alfonso | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| John Wallace | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| Randall Hartranft | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Dan Nickerson | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Philip Youngberg | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 4.0% | 1.3% |
| Ryan Bailey | 2.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 5.6% | 0.6% |
| William Schwenger | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 11.1% | 30.3% | 33.2% |
| Nick Hecht | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 6.8% | 22.9% | 55.2% |
| Collin Leon | 2.8% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 0.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.