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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.90+4.99vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.68+8.40vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston3.78+3.55vs Predicted
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4Tufts University3.41+3.91vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.22+3.35vs Predicted
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6University of Miami3.69+1.02vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University3.03+2.24vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.42-0.33vs Predicted
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9University of South Florida3.49-1.19vs Predicted
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10Texas A&M University at Galveston2.08+2.46vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University4.74-7.18vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy2.90-2.31vs Predicted
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13Washington College2.84-2.96vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05-4.67vs Predicted
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15Yale University3.89-8.85vs Predicted
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16Queen's University1.06-1.09vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan0.62-1.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.99Stanford University3.900.1%1st Place
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10.4University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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6.55College of Charleston3.780.1%1st Place
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7.91Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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8.35Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.220.1%1st Place
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7.02University of Miami3.690.1%1st Place
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9.24Old Dominion University3.030.0%1st Place
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7.67Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.420.1%1st Place
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7.81University of South Florida3.490.0%1st Place
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12.46Texas A&M University at Galveston2.080.0%1st Place
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3.82Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
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9.69U. S. Naval Academy2.900.0%1st Place
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10.04Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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9.33St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.0%1st Place
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6.15Yale University3.890.1%1st Place
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14.91Queen's University1.060.0%1st Place
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15.66University of Michigan0.620.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateo Vargas | 11.1% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 12.1% | 7.2% | 0.7% |
| Erik Bowers | 7.7% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Dan Nickerson | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Timothy Zacher | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| David Hernandez | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Collin Leon | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 0.5% |
| David Alfonso | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Stocke | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Trey Hartman | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 19.6% | 15.2% | 7.1% |
| Chris Barnard | 22.0% | 17.4% | 14.8% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Philip Youngberg | 3.9% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 3.5% | 1.7% |
| Ryan Bailey | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 5.0% | 1.7% |
| John Wallace | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 0.4% |
| Cam Cullman | 10.0% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| William Schwenger | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 10.0% | 33.6% | 31.8% |
| Nick Hecht | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 7.1% | 21.4% | 55.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.