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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.89+5.04vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston3.78+4.42vs Predicted
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3Tufts University3.41+4.82vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University4.74-0.22vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.22+3.36vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.90+0.31vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+2.22vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University3.03+0.94vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.68+1.61vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida3.49-2.52vs Predicted
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11University of Miami3.69-3.97vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy2.90-2.36vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College3.28-4.55vs Predicted
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14Texas A&M University at Galveston2.08-1.50vs Predicted
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15Washington College2.84-5.10vs Predicted
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16Queen's University1.06-1.13vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan0.62-1.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.04Yale University3.890.1%1st Place
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6.42College of Charleston3.780.1%1st Place
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7.82Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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3.78Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
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8.36Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.220.1%1st Place
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6.31Stanford University3.900.1%1st Place
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9.22St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.0%1st Place
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8.94Old Dominion University3.030.0%1st Place
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10.61University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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7.48University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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7.03University of Miami3.690.1%1st Place
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9.64U. S. Naval Academy2.900.0%1st Place
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8.45SUNY Maritime College3.280.0%1st Place
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12.5Texas A&M University at Galveston2.080.0%1st Place
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9.9Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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14.87Queen's University1.060.0%1st Place
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15.63University of Michigan0.620.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Cullman | 11.1% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Erik Bowers | 8.0% | 10.7% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Dan Nickerson | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Chris Barnard | 21.8% | 17.4% | 14.4% | 14.3% | 10.4% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Timothy Zacher | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Mateo Vargas | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| John Wallace | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 0.5% |
| Collin Leon | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Michael Russom | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 12.5% | 7.2% | 1.4% |
| Christopher Stocke | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| David Hernandez | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Philip Youngberg | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 3.8% | 1.1% |
| Randall Hartranft | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 0.4% |
| Trey Hartman | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 8.8% | 11.7% | 19.7% | 16.9% | 7.1% |
| Ryan Bailey | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 5.6% | 1.2% |
| William Schwenger | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 7.6% | 11.4% | 30.5% | 32.5% |
| Nick Hecht | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 7.8% | 21.9% | 54.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.