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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy1.92+2.73vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Cruz0.86+5.70vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California1.40+1.56vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley0.74+2.97vs Predicted
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5Arizona State University0.66+2.50vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University0.50+1.77vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51+0.96vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.47+3.09vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles1.30-4.09vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley0.35-1.73vs Predicted
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11University of California at Irvine-0.36+0.37vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara0.35-3.81vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego0.95-6.62vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-1.82+0.26vs Predicted
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15University of California at Irvine-0.88-3.08vs Predicted
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16University of California at Irvine-1.42-2.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.73California Poly Maritime Academy1.9222.9%1st Place
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7.7University of California at Santa Cruz0.864.6%1st Place
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4.56University of Southern California1.4014.9%1st Place
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6.97University of California at Berkeley0.746.5%1st Place
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7.5Arizona State University0.665.4%1st Place
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7.77Northeastern University0.504.8%1st Place
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7.96Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.514.5%1st Place
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11.09Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.471.6%1st Place
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4.91University of California at Los Angeles1.3013.2%1st Place
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8.27University of California at Berkeley0.355.1%1st Place
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11.37University of California at Irvine-0.361.9%1st Place
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8.19University of California at Santa Barbara0.354.3%1st Place
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6.38University of California at San Diego0.958.3%1st Place
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14.26University of California at Los Angeles-1.820.2%1st Place
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11.92University of California at Irvine-0.881.0%1st Place
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13.4University of California at Irvine-1.420.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Mueller | 22.9% | 16.4% | 15.4% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Blake Roberts | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Luke Harris | 14.9% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 13.8% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Olsen | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Matt Grimsley | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Carter Anderson | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Max Case | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Ximena Greatorex | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 14.7% | 15.0% | 10.8% | 5.5% |
| Marianna Shand | 13.2% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Enzo Cremers | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Nikita Swatek | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 10.9% | 12.5% | 16.0% | 14.4% | 7.2% |
| Rory Collins | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 0.3% |
| Brendan O'Connor | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Katherine Smith | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 6.4% | 10.8% | 20.9% | 46.8% |
| Nejan Gunawardena | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 11.8% | 18.1% | 17.2% | 10.3% |
| Gennis Marie Pilapil | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 13.6% | 24.1% | 28.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.