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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Los Angeles1.30+3.97vs Predicted
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2Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51+6.13vs Predicted
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3Arizona State University0.66+4.63vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy1.92-0.28vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz0.86+2.72vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University0.50+1.93vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara0.35+1.13vs Predicted
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8University of California at Irvine-0.36+3.44vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley0.35-0.66vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego0.95-3.63vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.26-0.68vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles-1.82+2.25vs Predicted
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13University of California at Irvine-1.42+0.46vs Predicted
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14University of California at Berkeley0.74-6.97vs Predicted
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15University of California at Irvine-0.88-2.93vs Predicted
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16University of Southern California1.40-11.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.97University of California at Los Angeles1.3012.8%1st Place
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8.13Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.514.7%1st Place
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7.63Arizona State University0.664.9%1st Place
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3.72California Poly Maritime Academy1.9220.3%1st Place
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7.72University of California at Santa Cruz0.865.1%1st Place
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7.93Northeastern University0.504.9%1st Place
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8.13University of California at Santa Barbara0.355.0%1st Place
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11.44University of California at Irvine-0.361.7%1st Place
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8.34University of California at Berkeley0.354.1%1st Place
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6.37University of California at San Diego0.958.8%1st Place
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10.32Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.262.8%1st Place
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14.25University of California at Los Angeles-1.820.4%1st Place
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13.46University of California at Irvine-1.420.8%1st Place
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7.03University of California at Berkeley0.746.6%1st Place
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12.07University of California at Irvine-0.881.5%1st Place
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4.49University of Southern California1.4015.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marianna Shand | 12.8% | 11.6% | 12.4% | 13.2% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Max Case | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| Matt Grimsley | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 20.3% | 19.1% | 15.8% | 12.6% | 10.8% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blake Roberts | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Carter Anderson | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Rory Collins | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Nikita Swatek | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 13.2% | 15.7% | 14.6% | 7.8% |
| Enzo Cremers | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Brendan O'Connor | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Florence Duff | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 11.5% | 13.6% | 13.5% | 7.3% | 3.2% |
| Katherine Smith | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 10.0% | 20.6% | 47.3% |
| Gennis Marie Pilapil | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 13.1% | 27.4% | 27.9% |
| Katherine Olsen | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Nejan Gunawardena | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 12.3% | 18.9% | 17.5% | 11.2% |
| Luke Harris | 15.7% | 15.3% | 14.2% | 12.4% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.