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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California1.40+3.41vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy1.92+1.82vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles1.30+2.03vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.26+6.49vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz0.86+2.65vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51+2.10vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego0.95-0.78vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University0.66-0.27vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University0.50-1.04vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley0.74-3.15vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley0.35-2.48vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara0.35-3.74vs Predicted
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13University of California at Irvine-0.36-1.53vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-1.42-0.63vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-1.82-0.99vs Predicted
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16University of California at Irvine-0.88-3.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.41University of Southern California1.4016.2%1st Place
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3.82California Poly Maritime Academy1.9219.3%1st Place
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5.03University of California at Los Angeles1.3012.5%1st Place
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10.49Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.262.3%1st Place
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7.65University of California at Santa Cruz0.865.9%1st Place
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8.1Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.515.5%1st Place
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6.22University of California at San Diego0.958.5%1st Place
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7.73Arizona State University0.665.1%1st Place
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7.96Northeastern University0.504.7%1st Place
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6.85University of California at Berkeley0.746.2%1st Place
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8.52University of California at Berkeley0.353.8%1st Place
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8.26University of California at Santa Barbara0.355.2%1st Place
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11.47University of California at Irvine-0.361.8%1st Place
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13.37University of California at Irvine-1.421.1%1st Place
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14.01University of California at Los Angeles-1.820.8%1st Place
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12.14University of California at Irvine-0.881.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Harris | 16.2% | 14.0% | 13.6% | 13.2% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 19.3% | 19.3% | 16.2% | 12.3% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marianna Shand | 12.5% | 12.2% | 12.8% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Florence Duff | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 12.4% | 12.2% | 9.7% | 3.9% |
| Blake Roberts | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Max Case | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Brendan O'Connor | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Matt Grimsley | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Carter Anderson | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Katherine Olsen | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Enzo Cremers | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Rory Collins | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Nikita Swatek | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 12.5% | 17.0% | 14.8% | 7.8% |
| Gennis Marie Pilapil | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 8.8% | 12.9% | 24.5% | 29.0% |
| Katherine Smith | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 10.6% | 19.5% | 44.6% |
| Nejan Gunawardena | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 13.8% | 16.7% | 18.2% | 11.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.