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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at San Diego-1.13+7.55vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles-2.10+6.94vs Predicted
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3University of California at San Diego-0.87+4.35vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.20-0.06vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz-0.17+0.15vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley-0.40+0.61vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.48+2.17vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego-1.25+0.58vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University-1.55+0.56vs Predicted
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100.25-5.88vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.94-3.15vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles-1.60-2.43vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley-0.75-6.07vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.29-5.30vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.55University of California at San Diego-1.134.5%1st Place
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8.94University of California at Los Angeles-2.103.9%1st Place
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7.35University of California at San Diego-0.876.2%1st Place
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3.94Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.2019.1%1st Place
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5.15University of California at Santa Cruz-0.1710.8%1st Place
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6.61University of California at Berkeley-0.406.3%1st Place
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9.17Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.483.4%1st Place
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8.58University of California at San Diego-1.253.7%1st Place
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9.56Arizona State University-1.553.5%1st Place
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4.120.2519.0%1st Place
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7.85Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.945.3%1st Place
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9.57University of California at Los Angeles-1.602.9%1st Place
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6.93University of California at Berkeley-0.757.2%1st Place
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8.7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.294.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Johnston | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 7.3% |
| Orion Spatafora | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 11.8% |
| Alex Bussey | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 3.5% |
| Lucas Kasper | 19.1% | 17.3% | 15.2% | 12.8% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Dante Massaro | 10.8% | 13.5% | 12.2% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Aivan Durfee | 6.3% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 1.7% |
| Colin Thompson | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 12.8% | 12.7% |
| Adem Evecek | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 9.2% |
| Mason Norwood | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 12.6% | 17.1% |
| JT Long | 19.0% | 16.7% | 13.1% | 12.8% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Briar | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% |
| John Gallagher | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 12.4% | 17.2% |
| Connor Fagan | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 2.0% |
| Kyle Hirth | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 11.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.