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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45+1.45vs Predicted
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2University of California at San Diego-1.10+6.45vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz0.24+1.84vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz0.69-0.24vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.72+5.42vs Predicted
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6University of California at Davis-1.40+3.54vs Predicted
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7University of California at Davis-1.84+3.86vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.57+2.25vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.66-5.16vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles-1.63+0.46vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-2.05+0.64vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-0.99-3.59vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-1.86-1.97vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-2.21-1.83vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara-0.51-8.18vs Predicted
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16Arizona State University-1.90-4.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.45Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.4535.3%1st Place
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8.45University of California at San Diego-1.102.9%1st Place
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4.84University of California at Santa Cruz0.2410.3%1st Place
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3.76University of California at Santa Cruz0.6916.1%1st Place
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10.42Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.721.7%1st Place
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9.54University of California at Davis-1.402.1%1st Place
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10.86University of California at Davis-1.841.2%1st Place
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10.25Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.571.3%1st Place
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3.84Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.6614.9%1st Place
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10.46University of California at Los Angeles-1.631.8%1st Place
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11.64University of California at San Diego-2.051.1%1st Place
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8.41University of California at Berkeley-0.992.7%1st Place
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11.03University of California at Los Angeles-1.860.9%1st Place
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12.17University of California at San Diego-2.210.7%1st Place
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6.82University of California at Santa Barbara-0.515.5%1st Place
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11.06Arizona State University-1.901.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Henderson | 35.3% | 24.9% | 18.9% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Laurence Mach | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 1.5% |
| Hunter Holguin | 10.3% | 11.3% | 12.7% | 14.5% | 13.9% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Devon Baker-Berry | 16.1% | 17.8% | 17.3% | 15.4% | 12.3% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Tran | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 8.0% |
| Blossom Jee | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 3.6% |
| Nathan Baer | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 10.2% |
| Daniel Gates | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 5.3% |
| Jack Phibbs | 14.9% | 18.0% | 17.4% | 15.7% | 12.6% | 9.0% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Araoz | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.1% |
| Maria Gunness | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 13.2% | 16.9% |
| Aidan Ramblas | 2.7% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 1.6% |
| Katinka Lennemann | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 10.3% |
| Sophia Pless | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 14.9% | 21.9% |
| Andrew Kestenbaum | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Elizabeth Ratterree | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 12.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.