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📊 Prediction Accuracy
62.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz0.69+2.75vs Predicted
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2Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45+0.42vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley-0.99+5.42vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.66-0.18vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara-0.51+1.77vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz0.24-1.16vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego-1.10+1.60vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.57+2.09vs Predicted
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9University of California at Davis-1.84+1.84vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego-2.05+1.52vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles-1.63-0.44vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.72-1.49vs Predicted
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13Arizona State University-1.90-1.90vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-1.40-4.46vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-1.86-3.91vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego-2.21-3.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.75University of California at Santa Cruz0.6916.1%1st Place
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2.42Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.4536.8%1st Place
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8.42University of California at Berkeley-0.992.5%1st Place
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3.82Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.6615.0%1st Place
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6.77University of California at Santa Barbara-0.514.8%1st Place
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4.84University of California at Santa Cruz0.249.8%1st Place
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8.6University of California at San Diego-1.102.8%1st Place
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10.09Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.572.0%1st Place
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10.84University of California at Davis-1.841.3%1st Place
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11.52University of California at San Diego-2.051.0%1st Place
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10.56University of California at Los Angeles-1.631.2%1st Place
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10.51Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.721.1%1st Place
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11.1Arizona State University-1.901.1%1st Place
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9.54University of California at Davis-1.402.2%1st Place
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11.09University of California at Los Angeles-1.861.4%1st Place
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12.12University of California at San Diego-2.211.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Baker-Berry | 16.1% | 18.1% | 16.8% | 15.6% | 13.2% | 8.8% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Garrett Henderson | 36.8% | 24.8% | 17.4% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Ramblas | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| Jack Phibbs | 15.0% | 18.3% | 17.8% | 15.7% | 11.9% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Kestenbaum | 4.8% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Hunter Holguin | 9.8% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 14.8% | 13.6% | 12.6% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Laurence Mach | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.4% |
| Daniel Gates | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% |
| Nathan Baer | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 10.4% |
| Maria Gunness | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 12.8% | 16.1% |
| Aidan Araoz | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 7.0% |
| Dylan Tran | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 7.4% |
| Elizabeth Ratterree | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 12.3% |
| Blossom Jee | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.2% |
| Katinka Lennemann | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 11.8% |
| Sophia Pless | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 13.8% | 22.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.