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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.7
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara3.26+6.38vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii3.68+3.71vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.69+2.67vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy2.25+8.27vs Predicted
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5California State University Channel Islands2.77+4.67vs Predicted
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6University of Oregon2.76+3.50vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California2.57+3.46vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California2.64+2.42vs Predicted
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9University of Washington1.69+6.14vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego2.19+2.48vs Predicted
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11California State University Monterey Bay1.64+4.65vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley2.60-1.51vs Predicted
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14Santa Clara University2.20-1.32vs Predicted
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15Western Washington University1.88-1.15vs Predicted
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16University of California at Irvine2.17-3.07vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Cruz1.41-0.56vs Predicted
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18University of Washington2.79-8.33vs Predicted
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19University of Puget Sound1.26-1.64vs Predicted
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20Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.64-4.99vs Predicted
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21University of California at Davis1.68-5.89vs Predicted
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22Western Washington University2.21-9.70vs Predicted
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23University of California at Berkeley1.18-5.54vs Predicted
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24Stanford University3.04-15.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.38University of California at Santa Barbara3.260.1%1st Place
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5.71University of Hawaii3.680.1%1st Place
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5.67Brown University3.690.1%1st Place
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12.27California Poly Maritime Academy2.250.0%1st Place
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9.67California State University Channel Islands2.770.0%1st Place
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9.5University of Oregon2.760.1%1st Place
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10.46University of Southern California2.570.1%1st Place
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10.42University of Southern California2.640.0%1st Place
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15.14University of Washington1.690.0%1st Place
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12.48University of California at San Diego2.190.0%1st Place
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15.65California State University Monterey Bay1.640.0%1st Place
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10.49University of California at Berkeley2.600.0%1st Place
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12.68Santa Clara University2.200.0%1st Place
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13.85Western Washington University1.880.0%1st Place
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12.93University of California at Irvine2.170.0%1st Place
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16.44University of California at Santa Cruz1.410.0%1st Place
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9.67University of Washington2.790.0%1st Place
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17.36University of Puget Sound1.260.0%1st Place
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15.01Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.640.0%1st Place
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15.11University of California at Davis1.680.0%1st Place
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12.3Western Washington University2.210.0%1st Place
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17.46University of California at Berkeley1.180.0%1st Place
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8.34Stanford University3.040.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Sullivan | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Adam Pokras | 12.8% | 11.8% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Judge Ryan | 13.7% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Van Rensselaer | 3.6% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 1.5% |
| Gregory Dair | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Elliot Drake | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Kelsey Rupp | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Cameron Hutcheson | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Alyce Flanagan | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% |
| Eric Alamillo | 2.6% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
| Zachary Haney | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 8.3% |
| Cody Shevitz | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| JOHN CONNOR BATHEN | 3.7% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.5% |
| Erika Vranizan | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 3.9% |
| Brian Hoover | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.5% |
| Tommy Pastalka | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 12.8% | 11.2% | 13.6% |
| Karl Haelsig | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| Mike Knape | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 14.7% | 18.0% |
| Erik Lund | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 8.4% |
| Ryan Lee | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.3% |
| Peter McGrath | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.4% |
| Megan Hayes | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 14.6% | 22.7% |
| Michael Dahl | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.