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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz0.69+2.57vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara-0.51+4.31vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz0.24+1.53vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.66-0.39vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45-2.64vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego-2.05+4.40vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego-2.21+3.74vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles-1.86+1.83vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.72+0.63vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University-1.90+0.03vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley-0.99-3.22vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-1.10-4.15vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.57-4.00vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-1.63-4.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.57University of California at Santa Cruz0.6916.3%1st Place
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6.31University of California at Santa Barbara-0.515.0%1st Place
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4.53University of California at Santa Cruz0.2410.1%1st Place
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3.61Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.6617.7%1st Place
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2.36Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.4535.4%1st Place
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10.4University of California at San Diego-2.051.2%1st Place
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10.74University of California at San Diego-2.210.8%1st Place
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9.83University of California at Los Angeles-1.861.6%1st Place
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9.63Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.721.1%1st Place
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10.03Arizona State University-1.901.7%1st Place
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7.78University of California at Berkeley-0.993.0%1st Place
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7.85University of California at San Diego-1.103.1%1st Place
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9.0Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.571.3%1st Place
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9.36University of California at Los Angeles-1.631.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Baker-Berry | 16.3% | 19.4% | 19.0% | 15.5% | 12.2% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Kestenbaum | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 12.7% | 13.0% | 13.2% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Hunter Holguin | 10.1% | 12.7% | 13.2% | 15.9% | 15.4% | 13.2% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Phibbs | 17.7% | 16.6% | 18.9% | 17.0% | 11.4% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Garrett Henderson | 35.4% | 26.8% | 18.1% | 10.3% | 6.2% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maria Gunness | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 13.1% | 15.7% | 17.8% |
| Sophia Pless | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 12.5% | 15.6% | 23.5% |
| Katinka Lennemann | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 13.2% |
| Dylan Tran | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 12.8% | 10.1% |
| Elizabeth Ratterree | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 12.5% | 14.2% | 14.3% |
| Aidan Ramblas | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 12.0% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 2.1% |
| Laurence Mach | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 2.9% |
| Daniel Gates | 1.3% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 6.9% |
| Aidan Araoz | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 8.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.