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📊 Prediction Accuracy
34.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy2.25+11.29vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.04+6.37vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California2.57+7.69vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California2.64+6.22vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara3.26+2.39vs Predicted
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6University of Hawaii3.68-0.48vs Predicted
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7Brown University3.69-1.52vs Predicted
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8California State University Channel Islands2.77+1.69vs Predicted
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9University of California at Irvine2.17+3.67vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley2.60+0.42vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz1.50+5.26vs Predicted
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12University of Washington2.79-2.39vs Predicted
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13Western Washington University2.21-0.37vs Predicted
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14University of Puget Sound1.26+2.83vs Predicted
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15Western Washington University1.88-0.60vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.64-0.63vs Predicted
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17California State University Monterey Bay1.64-1.50vs Predicted
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18University of California at Davis1.68-2.60vs Predicted
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19Santa Clara University2.20-6.81vs Predicted
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20University of California at Berkeley1.18-2.61vs Predicted
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21University of California at San Diego2.19-8.54vs Predicted
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22University of Oregon2.76-12.05vs Predicted
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24University of Washington1.69-8.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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12.29California Poly Maritime Academy2.250.0%1st Place
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8.37Stanford University3.040.1%1st Place
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10.69University of Southern California2.570.0%1st Place
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10.22University of Southern California2.640.0%1st Place
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7.39University of California at Santa Barbara3.260.1%1st Place
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5.52University of Hawaii3.680.1%1st Place
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5.48Brown University3.690.1%1st Place
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9.69California State University Channel Islands2.770.1%1st Place
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12.67University of California at Irvine2.170.0%1st Place
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10.42University of California at Berkeley2.600.0%1st Place
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16.26University of California at Santa Cruz1.500.0%1st Place
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9.61University of Washington2.790.1%1st Place
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12.63Western Washington University2.210.0%1st Place
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16.83University of Puget Sound1.260.0%1st Place
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14.4Western Washington University1.880.0%1st Place
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15.37Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.640.0%1st Place
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15.5California State University Monterey Bay1.640.0%1st Place
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15.4University of California at Davis1.680.0%1st Place
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12.19Santa Clara University2.200.0%1st Place
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17.39University of California at Berkeley1.180.0%1st Place
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12.46University of California at San Diego2.190.0%1st Place
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9.95University of Oregon2.760.1%1st Place
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15.27University of Washington1.690.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Van Rensselaer | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 2.2% |
| Michael Dahl | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kelsey Rupp | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Cameron Hutcheson | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Ryan Sullivan | 8.9% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Adam Pokras | 13.6% | 13.2% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Judge Ryan | 14.3% | 11.3% | 13.3% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gregory Dair | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Brian Hoover | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 2.8% |
| Cody Shevitz | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Michael Radziejowski | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 12.1% | 11.3% |
| Karl Haelsig | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Peter McGrath | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.2% |
| Mike Knape | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 13.8% | 16.2% |
| Erika Vranizan | 2.0% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 5.3% |
| Erik Lund | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.0% |
| Zachary Haney | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 9.5% |
| Ryan Lee | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.6% |
| JOHN CONNOR BATHEN | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 1.3% |
| Megan Hayes | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 12.0% | 21.3% |
| Eric Alamillo | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 2.1% |
| Elliot Drake | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Alyce Flanagan | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 7.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.