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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45+1.33vs Predicted
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2Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.66+1.68vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.72+6.51vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego-2.21+6.74vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego-1.10+2.78vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara-0.51+0.29vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.57+2.03vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego-2.05+2.44vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University-1.90+1.03vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz0.69-6.41vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz0.24-6.39vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles-1.86-2.00vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-1.63-3.66vs Predicted
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14University of California at Berkeley-0.99-6.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.33Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.4537.4%1st Place
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3.68Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.6616.2%1st Place
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9.51Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.721.6%1st Place
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10.74University of California at San Diego-2.211.0%1st Place
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7.78University of California at San Diego-1.103.3%1st Place
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6.29University of California at Santa Barbara-0.514.3%1st Place
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9.03Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.571.9%1st Place
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10.44University of California at San Diego-2.051.1%1st Place
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10.03Arizona State University-1.901.1%1st Place
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3.59University of California at Santa Cruz0.6918.0%1st Place
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4.61University of California at Santa Cruz0.249.0%1st Place
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10.0University of California at Los Angeles-1.861.1%1st Place
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9.34University of California at Los Angeles-1.631.4%1st Place
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7.63University of California at Berkeley-0.992.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Henderson | 37.4% | 26.2% | 17.4% | 9.6% | 6.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Phibbs | 16.2% | 17.8% | 17.8% | 16.2% | 13.0% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Tran | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 12.5% | 12.1% | 9.2% |
| Sophia Pless | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 12.9% | 15.2% | 24.2% |
| Laurence Mach | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 2.1% |
| Andrew Kestenbaum | 4.3% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 12.0% | 13.6% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 8.5% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Daniel Gates | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 5.6% |
| Maria Gunness | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 14.9% | 19.7% |
| Elizabeth Ratterree | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 12.3% | 13.9% | 14.0% |
| Devon Baker-Berry | 18.0% | 17.9% | 17.2% | 16.0% | 12.2% | 9.0% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hunter Holguin | 9.0% | 11.2% | 14.1% | 18.6% | 14.1% | 12.1% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katinka Lennemann | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 13.5% | 14.6% |
| Aidan Araoz | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 9.0% |
| Aidan Ramblas | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 11.9% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 1.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.