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📊 Prediction Accuracy
39.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.8
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy2.25+10.97vs Predicted
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2University of Washington1.69+12.86vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California2.57+7.32vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii3.68+1.36vs Predicted
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5Brown University3.69+0.42vs Predicted
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6California State University Channel Islands2.77+3.13vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego1.57+7.96vs Predicted
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8Stanford University3.04+0.14vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara3.26-1.92vs Predicted
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10University of Oregon2.76-0.74vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz1.41+5.25vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley2.60-1.90vs Predicted
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14Western Washington University2.21-1.84vs Predicted
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15University of California at Davis1.68-0.54vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.64-0.85vs Predicted
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17University of Southern California2.64-7.04vs Predicted
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18University of Washington2.79-8.65vs Predicted
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19University of California at Irvine2.17-6.52vs Predicted
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20University of Puget Sound1.26-3.72vs Predicted
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21Western Washington University1.88-7.29vs Predicted
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22California State University Monterey Bay1.64-7.19vs Predicted
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23University of California at Berkeley1.18-5.90vs Predicted
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24Santa Clara University1.04-6.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.97California Poly Maritime Academy2.250.0%1st Place
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14.86University of Washington1.690.0%1st Place
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10.32University of Southern California2.570.0%1st Place
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5.36University of Hawaii3.680.1%1st Place
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5.42Brown University3.690.1%1st Place
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9.13California State University Channel Islands2.770.1%1st Place
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14.96University of California at San Diego1.570.0%1st Place
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8.14Stanford University3.040.1%1st Place
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7.08University of California at Santa Barbara3.260.1%1st Place
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9.26University of Oregon2.760.1%1st Place
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16.25University of California at Santa Cruz1.410.0%1st Place
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10.1University of California at Berkeley2.600.0%1st Place
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12.16Western Washington University2.210.0%1st Place
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14.46University of California at Davis1.680.0%1st Place
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15.15Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.640.0%1st Place
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9.96University of Southern California2.640.1%1st Place
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9.35University of Washington2.790.1%1st Place
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12.48University of California at Irvine2.170.0%1st Place
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16.28University of Puget Sound1.260.0%1st Place
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13.71Western Washington University1.880.0%1st Place
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14.81California State University Monterey Bay1.640.0%1st Place
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17.1University of California at Berkeley1.180.0%1st Place
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17.65Santa Clara University1.040.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Van Rensselaer | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.5% |
| Alyce Flanagan | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 5.1% |
| Kelsey Rupp | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Adam Pokras | 13.8% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 12.0% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Judge Ryan | 14.5% | 12.5% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gregory Dair | 6.2% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Nguyen | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 5.6% |
| Michael Dahl | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Sullivan | 9.8% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elliot Drake | 5.3% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tommy Pastalka | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 11.9% | 10.0% |
| Cody Shevitz | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Peter McGrath | 3.5% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
| Ryan Lee | 1.6% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 4.8% |
| Erik Lund | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.2% |
| Cameron Hutcheson | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Karl Haelsig | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 9.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Brian Hoover | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| Mike Knape | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 13.4% |
| Erika Vranizan | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 3.9% |
| Zachary Haney | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 5.7% |
| Megan Hayes | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 14.3% | 18.6% |
| Maxwell Wyman | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 21.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.