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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.1%
Within 2 Positions
5.7
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy2.25+10.82vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley2.60+8.07vs Predicted
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3University of Oregon2.76+6.33vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley1.18+12.78vs Predicted
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5University of Hawaii3.68+0.40vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California2.57+4.08vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara3.26-0.15vs Predicted
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8Stanford University3.04+0.04vs Predicted
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9University of California at Davis1.68+5.46vs Predicted
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10Western Washington University1.88+3.47vs Predicted
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11University of Southern California2.64-0.94vs Predicted
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12Santa Clara University-0.18+8.91vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz1.41+2.95vs Predicted
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14University of Washington1.69+0.15vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego1.57+0.20vs Predicted
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16Brown University3.69-10.63vs Predicted
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17Western Washington University2.21-4.93vs Predicted
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18University of California at Irvine2.17-5.62vs Predicted
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19California State University Monterey Bay1.64-4.68vs Predicted
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20University of Washington2.79-10.98vs Predicted
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22California State University Channel Islands2.77-12.94vs Predicted
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23University of Puget Sound1.26-6.54vs Predicted
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24Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.64-9.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.82California Poly Maritime Academy2.250.0%1st Place
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10.07University of California at Berkeley2.600.0%1st Place
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9.33University of Oregon2.760.0%1st Place
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16.78University of California at Berkeley1.180.0%1st Place
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5.4University of Hawaii3.680.1%1st Place
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10.08University of Southern California2.570.0%1st Place
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6.85University of California at Santa Barbara3.260.1%1st Place
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8.04Stanford University3.040.1%1st Place
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14.46University of California at Davis1.680.0%1st Place
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13.47Western Washington University1.880.0%1st Place
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10.06University of Southern California2.640.0%1st Place
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20.91Santa Clara University-0.180.0%1st Place
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15.95University of California at Santa Cruz1.410.0%1st Place
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14.15University of Washington1.690.0%1st Place
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15.2University of California at San Diego1.570.0%1st Place
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5.37Brown University3.690.1%1st Place
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12.07Western Washington University2.210.0%1st Place
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12.38University of California at Irvine2.170.0%1st Place
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14.32California State University Monterey Bay1.640.0%1st Place
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9.02University of Washington2.790.1%1st Place
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9.06California State University Channel Islands2.770.1%1st Place
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16.46University of Puget Sound1.260.0%1st Place
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14.75Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.640.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Van Rensselaer | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Cody Shevitz | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Elliot Drake | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Megan Hayes | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 16.4% | 7.9% |
| Adam Pokras | 14.2% | 12.7% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kelsey Rupp | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Sullivan | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Michael Dahl | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 8.3% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Lee | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 2.5% |
| Erika Vranizan | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 1.7% |
| Cameron Hutcheson | 3.8% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Charles Hall | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 11.3% | 59.3% |
| Tommy Pastalka | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 4.8% |
| Alyce Flanagan | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 2.1% |
| Matthew Nguyen | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 3.7% |
| Judge Ryan | 15.0% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter McGrath | 2.6% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| Brian Hoover | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Zachary Haney | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 3.2% |
| Karl Haelsig | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Gregory Dair | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Mike Knape | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 13.7% | 9.2% |
| Erik Lund | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 3.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.