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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College2.46+3.35vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.68+1.82vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.34-0.31vs Predicted
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4Princeton University1.81+1.73vs Predicted
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5Monmouth University0.98+2.46vs Predicted
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6Stevens Institute of Technology2.75-2.30vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University1.61-0.98vs Predicted
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8Ocean County College0.49+0.36vs Predicted
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9Drexel University1.75-3.28vs Predicted
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10Penn State University-0.17-0.43vs Predicted
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11Rutgers University-0.10-1.39vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania-1.11-1.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.35Washington College2.460.1%1st Place
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3.82U. S. Naval Academy2.680.1%1st Place
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2.69St. Mary's College of Maryland3.340.3%1st Place
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5.73Princeton University1.810.1%1st Place
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7.46Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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3.7Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.2%1st Place
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6.02Christopher Newport University1.610.1%1st Place
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8.36Ocean County College0.490.0%1st Place
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5.72Drexel University1.750.1%1st Place
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9.57Penn State University-0.170.0%1st Place
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9.61Rutgers University-0.100.0%1st Place
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10.96University of Pennsylvania-1.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Bedinger | 12.3% | 11.7% | 15.3% | 13.4% | 16.0% | 12.6% | 9.5% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Timmins | 14.3% | 20.3% | 14.4% | 14.6% | 11.9% | 12.2% | 7.2% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Clemence | 31.1% | 23.1% | 18.4% | 12.2% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Gebb | 5.3% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 12.9% | 14.1% | 15.1% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Paul Luisi | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 16.3% | 17.6% | 13.6% | 7.5% | 2.2% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 18.4% | 15.6% | 15.4% | 18.0% | 12.1% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Victoria Miller | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 12.0% | 11.4% | 14.7% | 15.7% | 10.3% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 0.4% |
| Autumn Hoover | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 8.3% | 11.5% | 19.5% | 21.1% | 13.4% | 5.7% |
| Joan Boyle | 5.9% | 6.0% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 14.6% | 14.3% | 12.3% | 9.3% | 4.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Herlihy | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 7.1% | 13.2% | 19.9% | 27.4% | 17.2% |
| Tim Gorzelnik | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 13.0% | 20.6% | 28.1% | 16.4% |
| Tory Stires | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 5.2% | 9.9% | 18.9% | 57.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.