Race 1B

wac-open-central-fall-2

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

50.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Paul Stevens 16.0% 15.7% 15.0% 15.5% 12.0% 9.9% 7.3% 4.0% 2.6% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1%
John Marzulli 13.0% 13.7% 14.6% 12.1% 13.3% 11.0% 8.6% 6.8% 3.6% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1%
Jason Sinclair 6.1% 3.9% 5.9% 6.9% 8.2% 8.2% 12.0% 12.4% 11.6% 10.2% 9.1% 5.5%
Christian Geary 18.0% 16.4% 16.9% 13.3% 12.6% 7.8% 5.5% 5.0% 2.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Emma Ferris 19.5% 19.2% 16.0% 12.3% 10.8% 8.5% 5.4% 3.8% 2.5% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0%
Mary Buhl 7.2% 8.7% 8.0% 9.7% 9.8% 12.0% 11.4% 11.6% 9.9% 6.5% 3.5% 1.7%
Thad Bench 3.4% 3.6% 4.0% 5.4% 5.6% 7.2% 9.2% 8.6% 12.1% 12.7% 15.0% 13.2%
Matthias Chia 2.5% 3.5% 3.2% 4.0% 4.9% 6.7% 5.8% 8.3% 10.4% 12.3% 16.2% 22.2%
Eliza Crawford 1.8% 2.9% 2.3% 3.8% 4.0% 6.0% 7.9% 9.3% 10.5% 14.9% 16.5% 20.1%
Kathrine Bianchini 5.9% 5.0% 6.1% 6.8% 7.9% 8.8% 10.7% 11.8% 11.1% 10.9% 9.9% 5.1%
Kyle Donnelly 4.4% 4.2% 5.5% 8.0% 6.7% 9.2% 10.3% 11.0% 11.9% 12.1% 10.0% 6.7%
Brogan Savage 2.2% 3.2% 2.5% 2.2% 4.2% 4.7% 5.9% 7.4% 11.2% 13.7% 17.6% 25.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.