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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+3.88vs Predicted
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2Columbia University1.99+8.48vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.48+5.75vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.34+1.59vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College3.49+0.18vs Predicted
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6Ocean County College2.88+1.14vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College3.06-0.52vs Predicted
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8Washington College3.65-3.29vs Predicted
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9Fordham University2.04+1.01vs Predicted
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10Stevens Institute of Technology2.75-2.21vs Predicted
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11Monmouth University1.95-0.54vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.65-0.28vs Predicted
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13Rutgers University-0.10+2.80vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-7.32vs Predicted
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15Drexel University0.72-0.83vs Predicted
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16George Washington University1.57-4.30vs Predicted
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17Princeton University-0.03-1.12vs Predicted
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19Queen's University0.88-5.42vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.88Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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10.48Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
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8.75Cornell University2.480.0%1st Place
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5.59U. S. Naval Academy3.340.1%1st Place
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5.18Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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7.14Ocean County College2.880.1%1st Place
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6.48SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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4.71Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
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10.01Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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7.79Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.1%1st Place
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10.46Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
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11.72U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.650.0%1st Place
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15.8Rutgers University-0.100.0%1st Place
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6.68U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
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14.17Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
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11.7George Washington University1.570.0%1st Place
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15.88Princeton University-0.030.0%1st Place
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13.58Queen's University0.880.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Padnos | 13.2% | 14.2% | 13.0% | 12.7% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Croll | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 0.3% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Devin Laviano | 11.0% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Houck | 14.3% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Kennedy | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Steel | 7.9% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Whitford | 14.1% | 13.7% | 15.2% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Reynolds | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 6.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Paul Stevens | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 0.9% |
| Francois Conde-Jahn | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 13.1% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 5.6% | 1.3% |
| Tim Gorzelnik | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 7.7% | 13.4% | 21.9% | 37.8% |
| Andrew Bates | 8.3% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jason Sinclair | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 17.9% | 20.0% | 10.5% |
| Hussain Patel | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 6.4% | 2.2% |
| Elizabeth Smith | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 7.8% | 12.1% | 23.0% | 38.4% |
| Oliver Blake | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 14.9% | 17.5% | 13.9% | 8.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.