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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.34+4.90vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.49+3.34vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+1.87vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.48+4.48vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College3.06+1.51vs Predicted
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6Washington College3.65-1.27vs Predicted
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7Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+0.60vs Predicted
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8Columbia University1.99+2.15vs Predicted
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9Ocean County College2.88-1.90vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.65+1.54vs Predicted
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11Monmouth University1.95-0.55vs Predicted
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12Fordham University2.04-1.65vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-6.18vs Predicted
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15Drexel University0.72-1.02vs Predicted
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16George Washington University1.57-4.35vs Predicted
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17Queen's University0.88-3.20vs Predicted
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18Princeton University-0.03-2.09vs Predicted
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19Rutgers University-0.10-3.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.9U. S. Naval Academy3.340.1%1st Place
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5.34Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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4.87Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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8.48Cornell University2.480.1%1st Place
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6.51SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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4.73Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
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7.6Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.1%1st Place
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10.15Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
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7.1Ocean County College2.880.1%1st Place
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11.54U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.650.0%1st Place
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10.45Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
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10.35Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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6.82U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
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13.98Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
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11.65George Washington University1.570.0%1st Place
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13.8Queen's University0.880.0%1st Place
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15.91Princeton University-0.030.0%1st Place
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15.81Rutgers University-0.100.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Laviano | 9.9% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Houck | 10.4% | 12.3% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 12.4% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 12.9% | 13.5% | 12.9% | 12.7% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 5.2% | 3.7% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Tyler Steel | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Whitford | 15.0% | 14.2% | 12.4% | 12.7% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| John Croll | 3.4% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 7.9% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Tyler Kennedy | 6.1% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Francois Conde-Jahn | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 5.2% | 1.6% |
| Paul Stevens | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Alex Reynolds | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 0.6% |
| Andrew Bates | 8.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Jason Sinclair | 1.1% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 9.5% | 13.9% | 16.3% | 18.0% | 10.6% |
| Hussain Patel | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 13.0% | 10.5% | 5.0% | 1.2% |
| Oliver Blake | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 10.4% | 14.5% | 16.4% | 15.1% | 9.8% |
| Elizabeth Smith | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 6.1% | 12.9% | 24.1% | 38.1% |
| Tim Gorzelnik | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 7.7% | 14.4% | 23.9% | 36.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.