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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College3.65+3.95vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+2.87vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.49+2.30vs Predicted
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4Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+3.56vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College3.06+1.52vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.48+2.57vs Predicted
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7Ocean County College2.88+0.17vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-1.13vs Predicted
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9Monmouth University1.95+1.37vs Predicted
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10Fordham University2.04+0.28vs Predicted
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11Columbia University1.99-0.66vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.65-0.34vs Predicted
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13Rutgers University-0.10+2.79vs Predicted
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14George Washington University1.57-2.54vs Predicted
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15Queen's University0.88-1.29vs Predicted
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16Princeton University-0.03-0.15vs Predicted
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17Drexel University0.72-2.76vs Predicted
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19U. S. Naval Academy3.34-13.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.95Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
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4.87Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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5.3Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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7.56Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.1%1st Place
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6.52SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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8.57Cornell University2.480.0%1st Place
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7.17Ocean County College2.880.1%1st Place
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6.87U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
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10.37Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
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10.28Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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10.34Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
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11.66U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.650.0%1st Place
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15.79Rutgers University-0.100.0%1st Place
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11.46George Washington University1.570.0%1st Place
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13.71Queen's University0.880.0%1st Place
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15.85Princeton University-0.030.0%1st Place
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14.24Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
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5.51U. S. Naval Academy3.340.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Whitford | 13.8% | 13.6% | 12.1% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 12.6% | 11.9% | 14.9% | 12.6% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Houck | 12.2% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 5.9% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Steel | 8.6% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Kennedy | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Bates | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Paul Stevens | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Alex Reynolds | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| John Croll | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 7.1% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Francois Conde-Jahn | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 13.9% | 12.6% | 10.0% | 5.7% | 1.3% |
| Tim Gorzelnik | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 12.8% | 22.7% | 37.4% |
| Hussain Patel | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 5.1% | 2.2% |
| Oliver Blake | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 18.9% | 14.6% | 8.4% |
| Elizabeth Smith | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 13.3% | 25.2% | 35.1% |
| Jason Sinclair | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 13.9% | 15.4% | 19.7% | 13.6% |
| Devin Laviano | 11.6% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.