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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.49+4.27vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.34+3.66vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College3.06+3.56vs Predicted
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4George Washington University1.57+7.44vs Predicted
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5Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+2.42vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-1.42vs Predicted
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7Queen's University0.88+6.69vs Predicted
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8Monmouth University1.95+2.19vs Predicted
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9Washington College3.07-2.66vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.65+1.54vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-4.08vs Predicted
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12Cornell University2.48-3.28vs Predicted
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13Columbia University1.99-3.01vs Predicted
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14Ocean County College2.88-7.18vs Predicted
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15Rutgers University-0.10+0.96vs Predicted
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17Fordham University2.04-6.97vs Predicted
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18Drexel University0.72-3.82vs Predicted
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19Princeton University-0.03-3.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.27Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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5.66U. S. Naval Academy3.340.1%1st Place
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6.56SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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11.44George Washington University1.570.0%1st Place
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7.42Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.1%1st Place
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4.58Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.2%1st Place
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13.69Queen's University0.880.0%1st Place
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10.19Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
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6.34Washington College3.070.1%1st Place
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11.54U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.650.0%1st Place
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6.92U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
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8.72Cornell University2.480.0%1st Place
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9.99Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
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6.82Ocean County College2.880.1%1st Place
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15.96Rutgers University-0.100.0%1st Place
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10.03Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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14.18Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
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15.68Princeton University-0.030.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Houck | 12.7% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 12.3% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Devin Laviano | 9.7% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Steel | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hussain Patel | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 4.5% | 2.3% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Louis Padnos | 16.0% | 15.4% | 13.5% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Blake | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 9.2% | 14.7% | 18.4% | 15.9% | 8.4% |
| Paul Stevens | 3.9% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 12.3% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 0.3% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 8.2% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Francois Conde-Jahn | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 5.6% | 1.5% |
| Andrew Bates | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| John Croll | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Tyler Kennedy | 7.5% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tim Gorzelnik | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 8.5% | 12.2% | 22.4% | 39.2% |
| Alex Reynolds | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| Jason Sinclair | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 11.9% | 17.0% | 18.6% | 13.5% |
| Elizabeth Smith | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 8.5% | 13.1% | 25.7% | 33.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.