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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College3.07+5.54vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College3.06+4.56vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.57+8.81vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College3.49+1.08vs Predicted
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5Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+2.44vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.34-0.46vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.48+1.41vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-1.28vs Predicted
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9Queen's University0.88+4.67vs Predicted
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10Fordham University2.04+0.13vs Predicted
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11Columbia University1.99-0.84vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.65-0.42vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-9.47vs Predicted
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15Ocean County College2.88-8.18vs Predicted
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16Monmouth University1.95-5.79vs Predicted
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17Drexel University0.72-2.88vs Predicted
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18Rutgers University-0.10-2.03vs Predicted
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19Princeton University-0.03-3.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.54Washington College3.070.1%1st Place
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6.56SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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11.81George Washington University1.570.0%1st Place
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5.08Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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7.44Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.1%1st Place
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5.54U. S. Naval Academy3.340.1%1st Place
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8.41Cornell University2.480.1%1st Place
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6.72U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
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13.67Queen's University0.880.0%1st Place
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10.13Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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10.16Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
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11.58U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.650.0%1st Place
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4.53Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.2%1st Place
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6.82Ocean County College2.880.1%1st Place
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10.21Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
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14.12Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
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15.97Rutgers University-0.100.0%1st Place
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15.68Princeton University-0.030.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Fitzgerald | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Steel | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hussain Patel | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 13.2% | 14.1% | 9.7% | 5.9% | 2.0% |
| Scott Houck | 14.0% | 13.0% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 6.9% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Devin Laviano | 11.6% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 5.5% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 7.3% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Blake | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 10.2% | 13.3% | 18.5% | 16.6% | 6.8% |
| Alex Reynolds | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| John Croll | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Francois Conde-Jahn | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 9.7% | 6.1% | 1.7% |
| Louis Padnos | 15.7% | 16.3% | 13.0% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Kennedy | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Paul Stevens | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 8.0% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 0.3% |
| Jason Sinclair | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 9.8% | 13.5% | 16.9% | 17.5% | 12.4% |
| Tim Gorzelnik | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 12.4% | 21.8% | 41.3% |
| Elizabeth Smith | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 13.8% | 24.0% | 34.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.